Coinbase (Coin) is entering its first quarter earnings report at Shaky Ground, with four Wall Street analysts expecting a miss as the retail lighting is likely to pressure Crypto Exchange’s most profitable business lines.

The company is scheduled to report results in the first quarter Thursday after the market. Analysts project earnings per Share (EPS) falling to $ 1.93 from $ 2.26 in the fourth quarter, and revenue falls to $ 2.1 billion from $ 2.27 billion, according to Factset data.

In the year before the first quarter, it reported EPS at $ 4.40 and a turnover of $ 1.2 billion. Trade volume is expected to land around $ 403.8 billion marks against $ 439 billion in the fourth quarter.

JP Morgan cut his EPS stimat to $ 1.59 with reference to a 10% decrease in Coinbases trade volume and a 17% slide in the total crypto market capital during the quarter. Adjusted for Crypto Active Loss See they EPS for $ 2.39, partly supported by controlled expenses and stable subscription revenue.

Barclays and Compass Point See deeper problems. Barclays cut its revenue, and EBITDA forecasts and said the market has cooled sharply since January despite stableco -growth. It breaks the amounts of retail to $ 69 billion, significantly below the street’s average estimate of $ 79.8 billion.

Compass Point, More Bearish still, downgraded the stock to sell, projected transaction revenue of $ 1.24 billion, 7% under consensus. It claims that Coinbase loses the retail share of decentralized exchanges (DEXS) and warns of further pain in the second quarter.

The popular trading platform Robinhood, last week, reported a 13% decrease in transaction -based revenue from the fourth quarter as markets cooled in the first three months of the year.

Stableecoins for rescue?

One area of ​​optimism: stableecoins.

Coinbases revenue from USDC increased as StableCein’s market capital increased 42% during the quarter and helped strengthen subscription income. Barclays estimates $ 304 million in the first quarter USDC-related revenue, and even skeptics at Compass Point acknowledge that this helped offset falling income due to the slide in ether’s price.

Oppenheimer cut its volume forecast to $ 380 billion from $ 440 billion, but noticed Coinbase caused us to trade market share. It is a positive sign, but one that may not matter if retailers continue to sit on their hands.

There is also a growing concern about competitive pressure in the longer term. Analysts noted that decentralized exchanges – especially those operating on faster and cheaper blockchains such as Solana and Coinbas’s own base – draw retail users who want to trade a wider range of tokens. While Coinbas’s US market share is up, its dominance as a centralized, regulated exchange may not be enough to avert this shift.

Looking ahead, analysts warn that a rebound in the short term can be slow to realize, especially with retailers who often hesitate to enter the market until they pick up previous losses.

Coinbase shares have fallen 23% years to date and deals with $ 198.06, while Bitcoin has risen by 3.8% since the beginning of the year to $ 97,023.

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