Pakistan’s demographic trajectory presents a formidable double bind: while key indicators such as fertility and growth rates are declining, the sheer number of citizens continues to rise, placing enormous and growing pressure on the nation’s infrastructure.
According to new figures released by the US Census Bureau, Pakistan’s population has now crossed an estimated 257 million, cementing its status among the world’s most populous nations even as it navigates a difficult demographic transition.
The data underline a critical phase. Annual population growth has fallen to 1.82% and the fertility rate has fallen to 3.25 births per year. But with fertility still well above the replacement level of 2.1, absolute growth is locked in for a generation.
Economists warn that the heavily youth-driven population structure will put increasing pressure on education, housing, transport and – most critically – employment through the 2030s and 2040s. Without accelerated job creation and sustained economic growth, they warn, this “youth bulge” could turn from a potential dividend into a long-term source of instability.
Beyond the numbers, the report highlights persistent developmental gaps. A life expectancy of only 60.5 years and an under-five mortality rate of nearly 65 deaths per 1,000 live births point to chronic weaknesses in maternal health, nutrition and primary health care.
With a population density of 333 people per square kilometre, the pressure on land and public services is acute. Urban centres, where informal settlements are expanding and transport networks are clogged, show visible strain as infrastructure development lags “dangerously behind” demographic realities.
A regional comparison sharpens the picture. Neighbors India and Bangladesh have reduced fertility to near or below replacement levels, combining slower growth with advances in health and education.
In contrast, Afghanistan, with a fertility rate above four births, exemplifies how conflict slows demographic transition. Pakistan is at a crucial midpoint: progress is evident, but the pace is insufficient to ease the pressure in the short term.
Globally, population growth is slowing to historic lows, but Pakistan’s path is clear. Demographers emphasize that the window for action is narrowing. Without urgent, targeted investment in girls’ education, reproductive health and job creation, the nation risks entering the last half of the century with an aging population and underdeveloped human capital—a combination that could cement prolonged economic stagnation. The demographic clock is ticking and the cost of inaction, analysts conclude, will be measured in stability and lost growth.
