Ron Hammond, head of policy at crypto market maker Wintermute, has a cautious view of the Clarity Act, putting its chances of passage this year at around 30%, even as momentum builds in Washington.
“There are a lot of moving parts,” Hammond said, pointing to a legislative process that is moving forward but unevenly. The Clarity Act aims to create rules around the regulation of crypto market structure in the US, including codifying how the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission can oversee digital assets in the US
Hammond’s estimate is largely consistent with other signals in the market. A recent Punchbowl poll of lobbyists and staffers puts the odds at 26%, while prediction market Kalshi has hovered just above even odds. The spread underscores how uncertain the bill’s trajectory remains.
Still, Hammond, who will speak at CoinDesk’s Consensus Miami conference next month, sees incremental progress. Lawmakers are pushing to move the bill through committee, with some aiming for a vote as early as April 20, though he cautioned that such timelines have been in flux for months.
“These dates are moving,” he said. “There is light at the end of the tunnel, but there are obstacles along the way.”
Passage of the Clarity Act is widely seen as a key unlock for institutional adoption of crypto because it would establish clear rules around which digital assets are securities versus commodities and define how they can be traded, stored and otherwise regulated in the US
Today’s fragmented and uncertain environment has kept many large asset managers, banks and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law will reduce this ambiguity and give institutions the confidence to scale exposure, launch new products and integrate crypto more fully into traditional financial systems.
Obstacles
At the center of these obstacles: banks.
According to Hammond, traditional financial institutions remain the biggest obstacle, especially around the question of whether stablecoins should offer returns. A recent report by the Council of Economic Advisers has pushed back the banking opposition, but negotiations are still stuck.
“There have been attempts from a number of sides: Coinbase (COIN), the White House, the drafters of the bill, to find a solution,” Hammond said. “But at every turn the banks refuse to give in.”
The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise. Hammond said a proposed “dividend deal” floated about two weeks ago did not satisfy either side, sending negotiators back to the drawing board. A new version is now circulating, but expectations are muted.
“Even with broader macro pressures, it’s hard to see how the banks will be happy here,” he said.
democrats
That resistance characterizes the politics surrounding the bill, especially for the Democrats. Hammond noted that some lawmakers who have accepted funding from the crypto industry are now navigating a difficult balancing act.
“If you’re a Democrat who took cryptocurrency, where do you stand on this issue?” he said, also pointing to unresolved concerns around decentralized finance (DeFi) and anti-money laundering compliance.
Further political headwinds may emerge in the coming months. Hammond singled out ongoing scrutiny of former President Donald Trump’s crypto-related dealings as a potential flashpoint that could complicate Democratic support if it intensifies around June.
“All that will be another headache,” he said.
Despite the friction, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable, if narrow, path forward. Progress in committee and continued negotiations could keep it alive until mid-year, when political incentives could change.
“There will be progress soon,” he said.
American expansion
For Wintermute, the stakes are high. The firm, one of the largest crypto market makers globally with around $10 million in daily trading volume, is expanding its US footprint and growing its New York team.
Hammond said that reflects a broader industry commitment to the U.S. market, particularly under what companies see as a more favorable regulatory environment. “Wintermute has expanded operations since the election by establishing a US office in NYC and we have been actively hiring,” he added.
This makes the outcome of the Clarity Act all the more consequential. While Hammond sees “light at the end of the tunnel”, he stressed that passage by 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.
For now, 30% remains his number, and a reminder that progress in Washington doesn’t always translate into results.
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