Crypto Daybook Americas will not be published on Monday, February 16 due to the President’s Day holiday in the United States. We will be back on February 17th.
By Francisco Rodrigues (all times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin is headed for a fourth straight weekly decline in its longest negative streak since mid-November. The largest cryptocurrency has lost 1.7% in the past 24 hours and 4.8% since Monday morning.
The broader CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) fell 2% in a market driven mostly by fear, according to Bitwise analyst Danny Nelson. In fact, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has now been in “extreme fear” territory for nearly two weeks.
“The main market driver right now is fear. Fear that we’re going to go lower,” Nelson told CoinDesk. “In a market like this, good news doesn’t register with investors. If they see an exit ramp, they take it.”
To illustrate his point, Nelson pointed to the reaction to Uniswaps A 25% rise after the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock (BLK), said it was making shares of its $2.2 billion tokenized U.S. Treasury fund BUIDL tradable on the decentralized exchange. The token has now returned the gains following that announcement.
“Sellers bearish on the market’s near-term direction overwhelmed bulls betting that institutional adoption will drive value over the long term,” he said.
Earlier this week, stronger U.S. payrolls data and falling unemployment prompted traders to reconsider expectations for interest rate cuts for the year. Further guidance may come later today in the form of inflation numbers for the world’s largest economy.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January is expected to show 2.5% year-on-year inflation.
Added to this uncertainty is concern over a partial US government shutdown. The chances of that happening tomorrow are now around 90% on the Kalshi prediction market. If one materializes, expect even more volatility amid thin trading. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- 13 February at 08.30: US Core Inflation Rate YoY for January (Prev 2.6%); MoM Est. 0.3% (Previous 0.2%)
- 13 February at 08:30: US Inflation Rate YoY for January (Prev 2.7%); MoM Est. 0.3% (Previous 0.3%)
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- February 13: Trump Media & Tech Group (DJT), post-market
- February 13: HIVE Digital Technologies ( HIVE ), post-market, -$0.07
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Unlocks
- February 15: Connex to unlock 1.56% of its circulating supply, worth $15 million.
- The token is launched
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 1.75% as of 16 ET Thursday at $66,933.65 (24 hours: -0.83%)
- ETH is up 2.05% to $1,961.15 (24h: -0.97%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 1.48% to 1,913.46 (24h: -1.96%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 15 bps to 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0019% (2.0947% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.13% to 97.05
- Gold futures are up 1.41% at $4,993.10
- Silver futures are up 3.65% at $78.30
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.21% at 56,941.97
- The Hang Seng closed up 1.72% at 26,567.12
- The FTSE 100 is up 0.12% at 10,414.44
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.16% at 6,001.38
- The DJIA closed down 1.34% to 49,451.98 on Thursday
- The S&P 500 closed up 1.57% at 6,832.76
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 2.03% at 22,597.15
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed down 2.37% to 32,465.30
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.71% at 3,741.30
- US 10-year Treasury is down 7 bps to 4.10%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.27% at 6,832.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.29% at 24,696.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.33% at 49,358.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.01% (+0.41%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.02923 (-0.55%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,027 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $33.55
- Total Fees: 2.55 BTC / $170,716
- CME Futures open interest: 116,875 BTC
- BTC Priced in Gold: 13.5 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.48%
Technical Analysis
- Bitcoin remains squeezed below the 200-week exponential moving average of $68,324.
- A confirmed weekly close below this level historically signals a further 20%-25% capitulation.
- That would take it towards the $51,000-$54,000 range before a bottom forms
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Thursday at $141.09 (-7.90%), +5.87% at $149.37 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $56.63 (-2.13%), +1.71% at $57.60
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.15 (-1.23%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $31.71 (-0.53%), +0.28% at $31.80
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $7.25 (-4.10%), +1.10% at $7.33
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.20 (-4.05%), +0.85% at $14.32
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.48 (-3.37%), +0.11% at $17.50
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.31 (-3.22%), +1.18% at $9.42
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.10 (-3.70%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.19 (+1.09%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $123.00 (-2.44%), +1.54% at $124.89
- Strive (ASST): closed at $7.70 (-4.82%), +0.52% at $7.74
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.54 (-1.21%), +1.07% at $6.61
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.74 (-8.82%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.03 (-3.74%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$410.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $54.3 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.27m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$113.1 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.67 billion
- Total ETH holding ~5.8 million
Source: Farside Investors
