Bitcoin trading near $68,250, returning to a price range dating back to early February after several failed attempts to convincingly surpass $75,000.
The latest sell-off occurred on Saturday after US President Donald Trump threatened to “wipe out” Iran’s power plants unless the country opened the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.
The weekend’s price action led to a CME gap – the difference between the price of bitcoin when futures on the exchange end the week on Friday and when they resume trading on Sunday evening. That gap would be filled if bitcoin recovers to $70,000 on Monday.
Gold and silver took another leg down on Monday, with January’s record highs now seemingly confirmed as the result of speculative mania rather than a genuine safe haven.
In contrast, the Dollar Index (DXY) is trading back above 100, supported by inflation fears and a halt to the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle.
The altcoin market has underperformed bitcoin since midnight UTC, with decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens ETHFI, HYPE and SKY losing around 3%, while BTC is in the black after falling on Saturday and Sunday.
Derivatives positioning
- Over $400 million in leveraged crypto futures bets have been liquidated in the past 24 hours. More than $280 million were longs, the most since Feb. 25, a sign that bullish bets have taken a significant hit from bitcoin’s decline on Sunday.
- Open interest (OI) in futures linked to gold token PAXG has risen 4% in 24 hours as investors pulled capital from futures on major cryptocurrencies, including BTC. Ether’s OI increased by just under 1%.
- On the decentralized exchange, Hyperliquid, Brent crude, WTI crude, gold and silver perpetuals are among the top 10 perpetual contracts by open interest, outperforming major tokens such as XRP. Volume profiles show a similar bias for traditional commodities.
- Funding rates paint a mixed picture of market sentiment. Traders seem to be chasing bearish exposure in tokens such as XRP, BNB, SOL, TRX, DOGE and ADA as evidenced by their negative funding rates. Meanwhile, BTC, BCH, HYPe, XMR and LINK rates remain positive, indicating strong sentiment.
- BCH and LINK also boast a positive 24-hour cumulative volume delta. This, combined with positive funding rates, points to continued net buying pressure, with leveraged traders positioning for further upside in both tokens.
- BTC’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has risen to 60% from 53% on Wednesday, indicating renewed uncertainty and fear as the Iran war drags on and major banks point to a sustained rise in oil prices ahead.
- Ether’s volatility index, EVIV, jumped to 84% on Sunday, the highest since early February.
- On Deribit, BTC put options are priced at a premium of eight volatility points for call options to expiration in June. This indicates a strong demand for protection against potential price declines.
- Block flows featured outsized demand for BTC put spreads, a bearish strategy, and ETH straddles, a bet on volatility.
Token talk
- CoinDesk’s DeFi Select Index (DFX) is the worst performing benchmark on Monday, losing 0.75% since midnight UTC, while CDMEME and SCPXC are down around 0.4%
- Privacy tokens bucked the bearish trend, with DASH, NIGHT and XMR all up 3% to 5% over the past 24 hours. The sector performed well at the end of 2025, supported by improved sentiment around anonymous transactions and improved regulatory clarity.
- CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” index is at 49/100, down slightly from last week’s high of 53, but significantly higher than last month, when it fell to 22.
- One reason to be optimistic is the Average Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is currently in “oversold” territory, suggesting that more altcoins could be on the cards this week.
