The last week of March is shaping up to be a volatile one, with the FTX Recovery Trust set to distribute $2.2 billion to creditors on Tuesday and the key US monthly non-farm payrolls statistics due on Friday, when many stock markets worldwide will be closed on Good Friday.
The war in the Middle East, now in its fifth week, is also critical. The conflict has disrupted major energy infrastructure and transportation in the region, which in turn has led to higher inflation expectations and a meaningful shift in monetary policy expectations, Luke Deans, a senior research associate at Bitwise, told CoinDesk.
“Bitcoin, a highly reflexive and liquidity-sensitive asset, typically reacts earlier to shifts in risk appetite and has been lower since October 2025,” Deans said. “This suggests that digital assets began to reflect tighter economic conditions ahead of many traditional risk assets.”
Global macro forces, he added, remain the primary drivers of risk sentiment. While liquidity will certainly play a role, the market backdrop remains fragile given the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
What to see
(All times ET)
- Crypto
- Macro
- 30 March at 9.30pm: China NBS Manufacturing PMI for March (prev 49.0); Non-Manufacturing PMI (previously 49.5)
- 31 March at 05.00: Eurozone Inflation Rate YoY Flash for March (Prev 1.9%); Core (previous 2.4%)
- 31 March at 9am: US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index YoY for January (Prev 1.4%)
- 31 March at 9.45am: US Chicago PMI for March (previously 57.7)
- 31 March at 10.00am: US consumer confidence for the Conference Board for March (previously 91.2)
- 31 March at 10:00: US JOLTS job openings in February (previous 6,946 million)
- 31 March at 19.50: Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for Q1 (Previous 15)
- 1 April at 08.15: Change in employment in the US ADP in March (previous 63,000)
- 1 April at 10:00: US ISM Manufacturing PMI for March (prev 52.4)
- 2 April at 8.30am: US Initial Jobless Claims for week ending March 28 (previous 210,000)
- 3 April at 8:30 AM: US Nonfarm Payrolls for March Estimated 48K (Prev -92K)
- 3 April at 8:30am: US unemployment rate for March estimated 4.5% (previously 4.4%)
- 3 April at 10:00: US ISM Services PMI for March (prev 56.1)
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- March 30: Nano Labs (NA), pre-market
Token Events
- Governance Voices and calls
- Stake DAO CRV and BAL vote on their bi-weekly targets to distribute CRV and BAL inflation across different liquidity pools. Voting ends March 31.
- SuperRare DAO votes to consolidate its financial management under the RareDAO Foundation by migrating remaining balances and officially ending its old Network Engagement and Grants programs. Voting ends March 31.
- Aventus DAO votes to simplify AVT issuances to a fixed daily rate, increase the node stake requirement and replace ongoing fees with a pre-allocation of the appchain token. Voting ends March 31.
- Unlock DAO votes to transfer 3 ETH to its Base multisig to exchange for USDC to cover current and future operating expenses. Voting ends April 2.
- Aavegotchi DAO votes to elect nine multi-sig signers, maintain a 5-of-9 signature limit, and set their quarterly compensation at $1,000 paid in GHST. Voting ends April 2.
- Arbitrum DAO votes across two proposals to transfer its code of conduct and procedures to living documents managed by OpCo and to upgrade to ArbOS 60 Elara. Voting ends April 2.
- The SSV Network DAO votes across two proposals to integrate ENS names into core protocol contracts to increase security against phishing and establish a soft fee floor for public operators to ensure financial sustainability. Voting ends on April 3.
- Lisk DAO votes to test the Degov.ai governance platform prior to Tally’s shutdown by performing a 0 LSK transfer. Voting ends on April 7.
- Unlocks
- April 1: to unlock 1.10% of its circulating supply valued at $38.29 million.
- April 2: Athena (ENA) unlocks 2.18% of its circulating supply, worth $16.05 million.
- April 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 2.66% of its circulating supply, worth $379.31 million.
- The token is launched
- March 30: BASED token generation events take place.
- March 31: EdgeX (EDGE) token generation event takes place.
- March 31: WorldLand (WL) to list on KuCoin, Gate and others.
- April 1: Orexn (OXN) enters a phased IPO period following the token generation event.
