Good morning, Asia. Here’s what makes news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily overview of top stories during the US HOURS and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see Coindesk’s Crypto Doybook Americas.
When Asia begins its trading day, Bitcoin
trades over $ 104,500 and, despite a possible threatening war in the Middle East, has been relatively flat on the day with insignificant market movement. In fact, for the last full week, BTC is only down by 2%, according to Coindesk market data.
Analysts are discussing whether the current stillness of the crypto market is a sign of strength or whether there is something more uncertain on the foot.
Three new reports this week from Kryptoquant, Glasnode and Trading Company Flowdesk all point to the same surface conditions: Low volatility, tight price action and muted activity on chain. In addition, retail participation has subsided and institutional players, from ETFs to whales, now create flowing the structure.
But it is cryptocant that flashes the most pressing warning.
In his report on June 19, Cryptoquant claimed that BTC could soon visit $ 92,000 to or even fall as low as $ 81,000 if demand continues to deteriorate.
Spot demand is still rising, but well during the trend. ETF streams have fallen by more than 60% since April, while whale accumulation has halved. Short -term holders who are usually newer market participants have thrown about 800,000 BTC since the end of May.
Their demand momentum indicator, which tracks directional purchase strength across the most important cohorts, is now reading negative 2 million BTC, the lowest in Cryptoquant’s data set.
However, Glassnode sees the same signals and arrives at a much less serious conclusion.
In its weekly on-chain update, the company acknowledges that Bitcoin Blockchain is “quiet”, which means transaction counts are down, fees are minimal and miner income is muted.
However, this suggests that it may not be a weakness, but rather a reflection of the development of the network. The settlement volume of the chain remains high, but it is concentrated in transfers of great value, suggesting that the chain is increasingly used by institutions and whales.
The derivative market, Glassnode Notes, now dwarf on chain activity, with futures and options volumes regularly exceeding 7x-16x.
This shift has brought more sophisticated coverage, better security practices and a more mature, whose less frenetic, market structure.
The France-based Flowdesk, a market manufacturer and trading company has views that fall somewhere in between.
While noticing thin Altcoin flow and flat market-making quantities, its June 19 describes the market as “spiral” that does not crack.
FlowDesk highlights an increase in tokenized assets, such as gold-supported XAUT (up 56% in volume), stableco-growth and rising RWA activity.
For them, low volatility can simply be calm before a directional breakout that is not necessarily down.
But in the end, it seems that no one has a reliable card for what is ahead.
Even the polyming field is not sure. Bettors gives an almost equal chance that BTC will fall to $ 90k in June or move up to $ 115K-120K.
One thing is for sure: Tug-of-War between Bullish Institutional Activities and Diminishing Retail Requirements Potentially opens Bitcoin for dramatic movements on each side of the trade, which is likely to dictate the market’s next chapter.
Presto Research says that crypto -tax companies have less risk than you think
A new report from Presto Research claims that Crypto Treasury Companies (CTCS), such as strategy and metaplanet, is not only geared Bitcoin ETFs, but a new form of financial technique with less risk than many investors assume.
Strategy’s latest increase, which raised nearly $ 1 billion via eternally preferred shares, shows how BTC’s volatility can be used to a issuer’s benefit.
These securities, together with convertible bonds and market sales, allow CTCS to finance aggressive crypto accumulation without triggering margin risk.
Presto points out that the strategy’s BTC is spotless and the Metaplan’s bonds are unsecured, which means that safety run, the primary trigger in previous crypto -blowups like Celsius and three arrows is largely absent here. It does not eliminate risk, but it changes the nature of it.
The real challenge, claims Presto, is not the crypto exposure itself, but the discipline of managing dilution, cash flow and capital timing.
The metaplan’s metric “Bitcoin yield” measuring BTC per Fully diluted share, this focus reflects on the shareholder value.
As long as CTCs can control the economic mechanics behind their accumulation strategies, they will serve NAV prizes like high-growth companies in traditional markets. But if they mistakenly calculate, the same tools that burn their increase could speed up their fall.
Semler Scientific Maps Bold Plan to hold 105,000 BTC in 2027
Semler Scientific (NASDAQ: SMLR) has revealed one of the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulation driving in business history, which advertises plans to hold 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025, 42,000 in 2026 and a staggering 105,000 at the end of 2027.
The California-based manufacturer of medical devices involving a Bitcoin Treasury strategy last year is trying to effectively 24x its current Bitcoin stash on 4,449 coins over the next 30 months.
It plans to do so using a mixture of equity increases, debt financing and operational cash flow.
But the path forward is not guaranteed. Semler’s primary mechanism for acquiring Bitcoin, which sells new shares under its market (ATM) program (ATM), depends on the company dealing with a prize for its net asset value (NAV).
According to data from strategy tracker, Semler’s MNAV is currently at 0.859x, which means that the market value values the company’s equity lower than its BTC holdings, which effectively cut off its ability to raise accretive capital.
This dynamic has made Semler something of a paradox in a world of Bitcoin Treasuries: A high conviction buyer without the prize to finance his purchase. Even when Bitcoin has risen to all-time heights above $ 100,000, Semler shares are down almost 40% in the year.
Market Movement:
- BTC: Bitcoin remains fixed below $ 105,000 despite strong ETF flow, with repeated resistance to $ 105,150 and signs of institutional accumulation offset by short-term bearish momentum and makrovolatility.
- ETH: Ethereum found support for $ 2,490, after a high volume sale broke key levels, with the price consolidated in a close range in the midst of geopolitical tensions and macrous security, and the signal potential of a breakout whose resistance to $ 2,510 is cleared.
- Gold: Gold hovered close to $ 3,366 on Thursday, slightly changed when the escalating geopolitical tension equalized pressure from Fed’s Hawkish attitude, while Platinum retired after striking an almost 10-year height; The US markets remained closed for June.
- Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 opened 0.24% higher Friday, as the markets in Asia and Pacific mostly rose in front of China’s loan decision and in the midst of the ongoing Israel-IRAN tension.
