• SBP Governor expects the overall positive influence despite US tariffs.
• Says the impact of US tariffs to “contained” on Pakistan, economy.
• Reserves expected to reach $ 14 billion. In June, says SBP Governor.
  

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad on Monday expected the recent fall in global oil prices would dampen the impact of the proposed mutual tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on Pakistan.

Last week, Trump announced a 90-day break at Customs and said he made the decision after more than 75 countries reached the negotiations and did not reciprocate against the United States. Previously, he had imposed 29% tariff rates on Pakistani exports to the United States.

Talking about Pakinomist News The program “Aaj Shahzeb Khanzada Kay Sath”, SBP Governor said: “[Pakistan’s] Total exports to the United States are $ 5.2 billion, of which $ 4.2 billion is textile -related products. “

He maintained that the US tariffs would obviously affect the textile sector and add that its influence would be “contained”.

The SPB Governor was of the opinion that the effect of falling oil prices would be greater than that of US tariffs on Pakistan’s economy. “We expect a comprehensive positive impact from the US tariffs,” he added.

Ahmad also said the government and SBP would support the industries if they are facing a significant influence.

To another question, he said that Pakistan’s balance between current accounts is expected to improve in March compared to previous months. “We are in the process of ending the number. Normally it ends by 20. In each month,” he added.

With reference to the increase in exports and transfers, he said the previously expected that the current account would be plus or minus by 0.5% of GDP at the end of FY25, but now they can say it would remain profits.

He said the total transfers for FY25 were expected to be around $ 38 billion. The SBP Governor also said that currency reserves were expected to reach $ 14 billion in June this year.

Earlier today, the SBP governor, who reflected on economic progress and path to a sustainable and inclusive economic growth, said that Pakistan made a noticeable progress on the macroeconomic front and economy in the country is gaining momentum.

He made the comments while approaching the Gong ceremony held here at Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) to celebrate Pakistan Financial Literacy Week 2025.

He emphasized that workers’ transfers reached a high level of $ 4.1 billion in March 2025-part reflects the results of the government and the SBP efforts to incentive the channeling of influxes via formal channels and smooth function of the domestic FX market. He said the total transfers for FY 25 are expected to be around $ 38 billion.

The governor shared key initiatives under the National Financial Inclusion Strategy (NFIs) 2024-28, including efforts to increase economic inclusion from 64% to 75% in 2028, while reducing the gender difference in financial services from 34% to 25% in 2028.

‘25% decrease in Pakistan’s exports to us’

On the other hand, the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) warned that the 29% mutual tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump are likely to hit Islamabad’s exports to Washington, resulting in a decrease of 20-25% on an annual loss of between $ 1.1 billion to $ 1.4

What can be described as a storm brewing on Pakistan’s commercial horizon, Pid has said that proposed mutual tariffs from the United States could have a devastating influence on the country’s export sector.

In a sharp political note released on April 13, 2025, the institute warns that these tariffs could lead to macroeconomic instability, significant job losses and a critical reduction in currency earnings.

The study – conducted by Dr. Muhammad Zeshan, Dr. Shujaat Farooq and Dr. Usman Qadir – analyzes the consequences of a proposed 29% mutual tariff on Pakistani exports to the United States. When the existing 8.6% most preferred nation (MFN) duty, the total duty could reach 37.6%.

The result would probably be a 20-25% decrease in exports to the United States, translating into an annual loss of $ 1.1-1.4 billion, with the textile sector bearing brown of battle.

“Trade is not a zero-SUM game. It’s about shared value-to-build connections that make both economies stronger. These proposed tariffs risk cut off these ties,” Dr. Nadeem Javaid, Pide Vice Chancellor, in a strong statement accompanying a new political note. “In pide, we see this moment not only as a threat, but as a catalyst – for course correction against a more elastic, diversified and strategic export future of Pakistan.”

In the 2024 financial year, Pakistan exported $ 5.3 billion to the United States to the United States, making it the country’s largest market for single -jerk. A significant part of this export was textiles and clothes that are already facing tariffs as high as 17%.

If the proposed tariffs are implemented, Pakistan’s price competitiveness would be seriously eroded, possibly giving regional competitors such as India and Bangladesh the opportunity to capture market share. The financial consequences would extend beyond textiles.