Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, characterizes the current market environment as “another wild ride,” with each week seeming to deliver stranger headlines than the last.
But despite the volatility, his overall message is that conditions are not nearly as dire as they may appear, and he remains relatively bullish on the outlook for the markets.
Timmer argues that markets are broadly “pricing in some sort of resolution” to current geopolitical tensions, particularly around Iran, “sooner rather than later,” he told CoinDesk in an interview.
Oil ‘backflow’
While crude oil prices rose above $100 per barrel, the futures curve remains in retrograde, with contracts further out trading around $40 during the first month. That structure signals that markets view the current supply disruption as a short-term bottleneck rather than a longer-term crisis, according to Timmer.
Elsewhere, market behavior reinforces this cautiously optimistic view. The S&P 500, which was down about 9% at one point, has returned to a decline closer to 1%.
Credit spreads remain contained, suggesting that systemic stress is limited. Even in traditionally defensive assets, the signals are nuanced. Gold and bonds, which are typically less correlated, have moved closer together, a dynamic Timmer attributes in part to global capital flows.
Countries facing constraints in moving energy through the Strait of Hormuz, he notes, can raise liquidity by selling highly liquid assets such as gold and US Treasuries, creating unusual correlations.
The crypto market got a much-needed boost on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Oil prices fell more than 17% on the news and stock markets also rose. WTI has since returned to trading around $100.
Bitcoin’s support at $65,000
Bitcoin adds another layer to this changing landscape and behaves more like gold, while gold has at times traded with characteristics more akin to BTC.
When bitcoin hit $126,000 last October, fast-moving capital rotated out of crypto and into gold, a shift visible in exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows. But now that bitcoin is already down 50-60% from its peak, Timmer sees fewer “paper hands” back in the market.
The selling pressure has largely been absorbed, while gold after a strong run appears more vulnerable to a pullback. Despite this, he remains bullish on both assets. Bitcoin in particular looks technically interesting for him, with the $65,000 level acting as solid support.
He sees the potential for a base to form, although he stresses that a catalyst will be needed to drive the next stage higher.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading in the low $70,000s at the time of publication.
‘Price for success’
Timmer believes stocks are effectively priced for success, with only single-digit moves despite significant geopolitical uncertainty. An important reason, he argues, is the strength of corporate earnings.
Importantly, Timmer points out that the wider background before the Iran conflict was already constructive. The US Supreme Court’s rollback of tariffs had improved the political environment, and fears of an AI-driven market bubble had not materialized. In fact, he sees investor skepticism, especially toward AI and software valuations, as a healthy sign. In a true bubble, investors stop asking hard questions; today they do the opposite. This investigation, in his opinion, has helped prevent the market from overshooting.
Still, the situation in the Middle East is still fluid, and the range of possible outcomes is wide. A worst-case scenario where Iran escalates by targeting energy infrastructure across the Gulf could be highly destabilizing. With around 20% of global oil supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a prolonged disruption could lead to a stagflationary shock, combining elevated inflation with weaker growth.
Timmer nevertheless believes that the markets have developed a more targeted response to geopolitical shocks. After a series of “false alarms,” including last year’s tariff-related selloff that saw the S&P 500 fall 21% from its highs, investors are less likely to panic. There is now a “show-me” attitude where weak hands are less easily shaken off.
This background remains constructive, Timmer argues, supported by what he describes as a strong mid-cycle economic expansion. However, he highlights several risks that investors should actively manage.
One is concentration risk, especially in the so-called “Magnificent Seven” technology stocks. Interest rate risk is another important concern. The 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 4.5% and could move towards 5%, a development that has occurred even amid geopolitical uncertainty. Rising rather than falling interest rates is an important signal that investors should monitor closely.
The real risk
Ultimately, Timmer sees periods of volatility not just as challenges, but as opportunities. He encourages investors to act as liquidity providers rather than receivers. Those who panic during turbulent periods become price takers, while disciplined investors with long-term perspectives can step in as price makers. At Fidelity, he notes, that means leaning into volatility, providing liquidity and rebalancing portfolios when others pull back.
While acknowledging that geopolitical events are inherently unpredictable, Timmer emphasizes that remaining on the sidelines of fear is not a viable strategy. Instead, a well-diversified portfolio, combined with a willingness to engage during periods of stress, may offer the best way forward.
Read more: Oil Shock, Iran War Risk Keeps Crypto Investors Sidelined: Shades of Grey
