The Calm in the oil market after the US air striker on Iran’s nuclear locations has stabbed the forecasts for bears that predicted a slide in the price of Bitcoin
. With this in mind, dealers can look at the big events of the week that can affect the markets.
Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell’s half -yearly monetary policy testimony to Congress is probably the main event.
Powell is likely to be grilled by Republican party members for not reducing interest rates and “costing the country hundreds of billions of dollars,” as President Donald Trump has repeatedly said in his truths social positions. However, Powell is expected to repeat Fed’s independence and the data -dependent path forward for prices.
Dealers will carefully look at Powell’s acquisition of the Rentenbanen considering the background of the Trump-appointed Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s recent comments that interest rates could be reduced in July.
“With the market’s pricing of future inflation well -rooted, early cracks that arise in the labor market and housing activity, obviously weak, there are reasons why bold to consider adopting a Dovish shift in July -FOMC meeting and guiding against a cut in September -a path already priced to the US Swaps market,” Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said at the X.
Dovish-tip could get more risk taking in the financial markets that are good for BTC, which has mainly had over $ 100,000 through the recent escalation of the Middle East conflict.
Markets expect Fed to deliver two 25 Basic-Point-Point Cuts this year but Take is not unanimous/
“We continue to believe that clarity in the history of inflation-where duty is a one-off price shock, or if they encourage more persistent inflation pressure-not coming before the FOMC meeting in December, which means we will only see a SATS cutting cut this year,” analysts said in a note to clients on Friday. “But if the job market continues to weaken, it may well be a 50BP cutting.”
Core PCE
On Data Front, Fed’s preferred inflation measure is scheduled for release on Friday, planned costs for the release of the most important personal consumption expenses (PCE).
According to Pepperstone, consensus for the data is to show an increase of 0.1% month to month in May, resulting in an annual growth rate of 2.6% and a three -month annual rate of 1.6%.
The expectations of a benign 0.1% increased support the fat rate cuts; According to Ing, however, the inflation effect of Trump’s tariffs is expected to kick in from July.
Trump’s 90 -day break on mutual tariffs announced in early April will expire on July 9, after which the heavy ‘Liberation Day’ tariffer comes into force.
So far, the president has entered into an agreement with the UK and announced a trade frame with China. Beijing does not yet sign the agreement and the European Union remains quiet.
Iran -tensions are not over yet
While the oil market is calm for now, Iran could cause damage even without closing the Hormuz Strait, a trade route that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil.
By constantly threatening the closure of the Sound alone, Iran could push up for shipping insurance costs and ultimately add oil prices.
The cost of securing a vessel for the journey via the Hormuz Strait has already increased from 20 cents per year. Barrel to 80, said a report from the South China Morning Post, quoting the Athens-based Xclusive ship brokers.
“By planting enough belief that they could interfere with this important logistical channel, maritime costs could rise to the point that it would have a significant impact on the supply of raw and gas,” Weston noted.
