Counterpoint research has been ringing this bell since the end of the year when it produced a similar report. Now, almost five months into the year, they see no evidence that 2025 will even meet 2024’s flat sales numbers. It is probably a frustrating reversal of events for Samsung, Google, Oppo, Huawei and Motorola, all of which are now deeply invested in the category.
In general, folding phones have never drawn for more than 2% of the entire smartphone market. One factor that may hold back the folding market is price. Some of the best folding phones cost twice as large as a standard flagship.
Many of these companies have not yet made a convincing use case for folding phones, except for “Will you have a small tablet in your pocket that takes no more space than a standard phone?” [Author’s Note: Yes. Yes, I do ]
Motorola Razr 50 Ultra (Image Credit: Blue Pixl Media)
While consumers remain uninspired, tech companies do not appear less invested in the category. Honor and Oppos recent items help grow the folded phones’ tiny smartphone category market share, but mostly outside the US.
Folding phones do not disappear from our digital landscape. In fact, counterpoint research indicates that the market is preparing for a resurgence.
“It is certainly not a sign of the market that peaked; rather, it is a sign of re -grouping before 2026, which is expected to be exciting and rejuvenating for the segment with the entrance to Apple and a number of mussels,” wrote the counterpoint senior analyst Jene Park.
Most rumors now point to Apple entering the foldable market in 2026, which is a lynchpin of this resurrection.
It’s a well -known story.
Apple CEO Tim Cook that poses for a selfie while another one carries a vision pro (Image Credit: Apple)
Apple’s product category -Playbook is usually one where it looks at other players floating around with oddball and subpar participants. Then it swings in with something beautiful and apparently obvious, a product that captivates both consumers and media.
It happened with MP3 players around the turn of the century (iPod) and later with screen-focused smartphones (iPhone) and then tablets (iPad). In both cases, Apple was by no means the first, but it quickly became the best and most desirable.
Foldable, however, is somewhat different, because although the market is stagnant, the products are generally considered excellent. Sure, Samsung, Google and others have not done any favors by not always putting the absolute best cameras and technology in each folded handset. Still, this is otherwise excellent and versatile devices.
Google Pixel 9 Pro Fold In Porcelain (Image Credit: Philip Berne / Future)
I’ve tested the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 6 and Google Pixel 9 Pro Fold and I love each of them. They are well -built, thin, relatively light, powerful, full of AI and generally fun to use as phones and as small tablets.
Yes, they can be insurmountedly expensive, but you know that prices will eventually tumble.
However, Apple’s entrance will prove to be a game election. I bet even Samsung, Google and others are desperate for them to enter the river and revive the market. Counterpoint Research believes that a 2026 iPhone -Fold will quickly eat a significant part of the small folded phone market, but also instantly enlarge it.
I have a tendency to agree with them. When I ran an anecdotal poll of X asking who consumers might buy a smartphone from, the Apple field led the field with Samsung, which has been in space longer than any other company, a close second.
Most rumors assume that although Apple will bring a lot of groundbreaking features such as a liquid metal hinge and an extremely thin chassis probably borrowed from the rumored iPhone 17 air, it will not lower the bar on the price. Most people think the iPhone fold could be in the $ 2,000 range.
It’s a lot, not Vision Pro much, but it means a simple iPhone 16-Pro-Trade-in will not be enough to fight most of the cost. You have a high monthly payment for the joy of owning Apple’s first foldable, and still I think people will gladly pay so much for an iPhone fold.
There is a chance that Apple could go with a slightly different design direction with its iPhone fold, and instead of chasing Z Fold 6 and other folding tablets, it could deliver a real clam shell.
Folded, iPhone Fold X would be the size of a Z -Flip 6 (but thinner). Unfolded, it would be the size of an ultra-thin iPhone 16-so-the thinness of an iPhone 17 air, but the pocketable screen size of a 6.1-inch iPhone 16.
It would be appealing on two fronts: a more portable form factor and probably a much more attractive price.
For now, it’s a waiting game. Apple has not suggested its folding plans, and there are no indications that a surprisingly flexible phone information in September. But WWDC 2025, Apple’s upcoming developer conference, is only weeks away and it can be the perfect platform to tease these plans.
Such a movement could either turn around folding wealth from 2025 or further depress them, as several potential folding customers decide to love until Apple finally sends the iPhone -fold.
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