Bitcoin has disappointed investors this year, trailing both gold and the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 stock index, despite expectations that it would benefit from fiat currency devaluation.
But according to a VanEck manager, the biggest crypto asset could be poised for a big comeback next year.
“Bitcoin is lagging the Nasdaq 100 index by about 50% year-to-date, and this shift sets it up to be a top performer in 2026,” said David Schassler, head of multi-asset solutions at VanEck, in the firm’s recently published 2026 outlook.
While this year’s weakness reflects a softer risk appetite and tight liquidity, the thesis for bitcoin remains intact, Schassler wrote. “Like degradation [currency devaluation] ramps, liquidity returns, and BTC reacts historically sharply,” he added.
“We bought,” he said.
Schassler’s broader thesis centers on a powerful combination of monetary deterioration, technological transformation, and the rise of hard assets. The asset manager argues that financing future commitments and political ambitions will increasingly depend on money printing, pushing investors towards scarce businesses of value, such as gold and bitcoin.
He expects gold to rise next year to $5,000, extending its already impressive run by a little more than 10% at current levels. “Gold is one of the strongest major assets this year and we expect that momentum to carry it forward,” he said. The yellow metal is up over 70% this year and is currently trading around $4,492 per ounces.
At the same time, a quiet bull market for natural resources is underway, driven by the infrastructure demands of artificial intelligence, energy transitions, robotics and re-industrialisation. These “old-fashioned assets,” as Schassler put it, build the foundation of the new world economy.
Read more: Gold, silver shine in bear trade as bitcoin is left behind
