Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, a daily overview of top stories in US hours and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Diary Americas.
Gold’s breakout above $5,000 is starting to look less like a surge and more like a regime change, even as bitcoin drifts sideways, trading around $87,000 in early hours of Hong Kong trading, in a low-conviction market that continues to struggle with internal supply dynamics.
Onchain indicators suggest that the divergence reflects market structure rather than sentiment alone.
In its latest report, CryptoQuant says bitcoin holders have begun selling at a loss for the first time since October 2023, with older buyers exiting positions and newer holders entering, a pattern that typically marks a market moving into consolidation rather than acceleration.
Glassnode says the market is being held back by supply, with rallies repeatedly encountering sellers near the prices at which recent buyers originally bought in.
Options and prediction markets reinforce this view: The market is pricing gold’s strength as ongoing, while expectations of a near-term resurgence of the bitcoin rally are waning.
Glassnode writes that price continues to stall below key near-term holder cost bases near $98,000, with a tight supply overhang above $100,000 – meaning there are enough sellers at higher levels to limit rallies and make a sustained move above $100k difficult in the near term.
Recent rallies have drawn breakeven sellers and loss-driven exits from investors who accumulated during the 2025 highs, reinforcing overhead resistance and keeping the upside fragile.
Market mechanics reinforce this diagnosis.
Futures volume remains compressed, leverage spreads are muted, and recent price moves have occurred in thin liquidity rather than alongside expanding participation.
At Polymarket, traders are assigning higher odds to gold holding above $5,500 through mid-year, while increasingly betting that bitcoin will see further consolidation before any renewed upside. For now, gold is absorbing macro stress while bitcoin remains in digestion mode, working through internal supply rather than responding to external catalysts.
Market movement
BTC: Trading around $87,000, Bitcoin is struggling to gain traction as overhead supply, thin participation and muted leverage keep rallies vulnerable to renewed distribution.
ETH: Ether is underperforming bitcoin, with price action reflecting weak demand, muted participation in derivatives and few signs of investors rotating meaningfully back to higher-beta cryptocurrencies.
Gold: Gold rose to a new record of over $5,000 per ounce. ounce as investors poured into the metal amid rising geopolitical flashpoints, continued central bank purchases and a weaker US dollar, reinforcing its role as a durable hedge against global risk.
Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei fell as Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed amid rising geopolitical uncertainty, with a stronger yen weighing on Japanese shares while other regional benchmarks moved unevenly.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- The big US crypto bill is coming. Here’s What It Means for Everyday Users (CoinDesk)
- Ethereum Foundation Forms Post-Quantum Security Team, Adds $1 Million Research Award (The Block)
