By Francisco Rodrigues (all times one unless otherwise stated)
When gold pushed through $ 4,000 per day. Ounce -brand for the first time, Bitcoin Lost 1.25% of its value and the wider crypto market, measured by Coindesk 20 (CD20) index, dropped 3%.
The drip came in the middle of profits after the crypto market rose more than 7.7% in less than a week and when the whale paper nuisance raised. The divergence also comes as the US Dollar Index (DXY) rises to its highest level in two months.
Gold, long seen as a safe port, has gathered over 50% this year. Inflowing into gold -bound stock exchangeed funds (ETFs) has been accelerated with possessions now at their highest level since the end of 2022, according to Ing.
Investors are seeking coverage from increasing political risk, including a new leadership crisis in France and growing tension in Japan’s fiscal direction. Meanwhile, the US government’s shutdown, now in its second week, has delayed central economic data and added the concerns of its fiscal outlook.
Bitcoin, while often considered a hedge against uncertainty, has been hit by the rising US dollar and short -term whales moving their BTC to exchanges, suggesting they have moved to lock profits.
Adding to Bitcoin’s headwinds is the sharp increase in Japanese government bond yields that jumped to a 17-year height this week. The 10-year dividend affected 1.70%and priced in the fiscal risks of the incoming Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Abenomics-inspired expenditure agenda.
Per Goldman Sachs, pressure from Japanese bold yields could be wasted into global bonds. Higher bond yield tends to tighten economic conditions globally and reduce the investor appetite for more risky assets such as BTC.
Still remains the institutional interest in Bitcoin. US-listed Spot-ETFs added over $ 3 billion in influx last week and pushed the total net off over $ 60 billion. This week, another $ 2 billion has been brought in, per. Sosovalue.
Other developments include S&P Global revealed the digital markets 50 index benchmark, which tracks 15 cryptocurrencies and 35 crypto-bound shares, while InterContinental Exchange invested a $ 2 billion investment in crypto-native predictions market polyemarket.
“In the short term, Bitcoin’s fundamental prospects remain positive, supported by monetary relief of expectations, consistently ETF flow and sustained demand for safe haven,” Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com, said in an email declaration. “If Fed delivers clearer signals about the start of a SATS-cut cycle in upcoming meetings, Bitcoin is likely to continue to take advantage of space to extend higher for new price areas in the fourth quarter.”
The next test could come from the Federal Reserve. Dealers prices in tight cuts, and if Fed confirms a shift against relief, both gold and bitcoin could see renewed momentum.
Stay aware!
What to look at
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see Coindesk’s “Crypto Week ahead”.
- Crypto
- Macro
- October 8, 9:30: Fed Governor Michael S. Barr speech on 2025 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louis. Watch Live.
- October 8, 14:00: minutes from Fed’s 16-17. September FOMC meeting.
- Earnings (Estimates based on Factset -Data)
Token -events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see Coindesk’s “Crypto Week ahead”.
- Management votes and calls
- Zksync DAO votes on a proposal to set aside 25 million ZK -Tokens (~ $ 1.25 million) to “Prividium Roadshow” through the end of 2026. Voting ends October 8th.
- GMX is holding elections for Season 3 of its listing committee, which selects three members to supervise and approve new active listings on GMX protocols.
- Jito DAO votes on a proposal to expand the validator set from 200 to 400 and update the stack of ranking and eligibility criteria to tackle negative stake pool dynamics voting ends 8 October.
- Unlock
- Token launches
- October 8: Sky (Sky) to be erected on Bitflyer.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see Coindesk’s “Crypto Week ahead”.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- BNB chain activity continues to dominate the ALTCOIN sector this week; Spurer a 10% daily gain for And an increase of 3% for BNB despite the wider market cooling.
- Spot Trading Volume on Pandakeswap hit $ 19 billion over the last 24 hours as dealers try to utilize the latest wave of hype; Chinese-linguistic Memecoins, which in some cases have already exploded for valuations of $ 350 million.
- The momentum change to the BNB chain away from Solana began to follow the emergence of Aster, a decentralized eternal exchange that has regularly peaked $ 100 billion in daily volume despite demands for trade flow differences.
- The total value locked (TVL) on the BNB chain has risen from $ 6.5 billion to $ 9 billion since June, though it stays well below its $ 26.3 billion height set in 2021, suggesting the ecosystem has more room to grow.
- Much of the network’s growth also depends on the direction of the wider crypto market; BTC and ETH gave both winnings Wednesday as the market begins to consolidate after another failed breakout.
- A move to the downside would probably weigh on the BNB chain as crypto traders often minimize the risk of rotating to stableecoins, reducing demand for speculative memeco
Derivatives Location
- Most major tokens have experienced a decrease in the Futures Open Interest (OI) over the last 24 hours, with Avax being a remarkable exception, issuing a 2% increase in OI.
- This widespread decline suggests that recent price acts are largely due to profits rather than an increase in bearish positions.
- Perpetual financing rates remain stable at or below an annual 10%, reflecting a mild bullish atmosphere on the market.
- At CME, Ether Futures Open interest rates have dropped to 2.16 million ETH from Monday’s top of 2.34 million. Despite this retreat, the overall positioning remains relatively high, especially compared to Bitcoin’s open interest, which is still well under its high December 2024.
- Both BTC and ETH Futures prizes on CME continue to trade below 10%.
- On dismissal, the market for Bitcoin Options shows a slightly negative crooked across all tenors, indicating that puts are somewhat more expensive compared to calls. Block dealer contains predominantly bull call spreads in Bitcoin and direct purchase of etheric calls out of money.
Market movements
- BTC has increased by 0.45% from 1 p.m. 16 A Tuesday to $ 122,564.51 (24 hours: -1.36%)
- ETH has fallen 0.62% of $ 4,484.06 (24 hours: -4.42%)
- Coindesk 20 has dropped 0.22% at 4,228.30 (24 hours: -3.15%)
- Ether Cesr Composite Staking Rate has increased by 4 bps of 2.89%
- BTC financing rate is at 0.0091% (9.9645% annually) on Kucoin
- DXY has increased 0.38% at 98.95
- Gold Futures have risen 1.43% of $ 4,061.80
- Silver Futures have increased by 2.51% to $ 48.71
- Nikkei 225 closed 0.45% at 47,734.99
- Hang bed closed 0.48% at 26,829.46
- FTSE has increased 0.54% at 9,535.15
- Euro Stoxx 50 has increased 0.39% at 5,635.69
- Djia closed Tuesday down 0.2CESR% at 46,602.98
- S&P 500 closed 0.38% at 6,714.59
- Nasdaq Composite closed 0.67% at 22,788.36
- S&P/TSX Composite closed 0.59% at 30,351.72
- S&P 40 Latin America closed 1.3% at 2,839.90
- US 10-year-old Treasury has dropped 1.6 bps of 4.111%
- E-MINI S&P 500 FUTURES have increased 0.15% at 6,771.50
- E-MINI NASDAQ-100 futures rose 0.21% at 25,091.00
- E-MINI DOW JONES Industrial Average Index has risen 0.16% at 46,925.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.11% (0.19%)
- Ether to Bitcoin ratio: 0.03658 (-0.22%)
- Hashrate (Seven-Day Sliding Average): 1,011 EH/S
- HashPrice (Spot): $ 51.52
- Total fees: 4.04 BTC / $ 498,734
- CME Futures Open Interest: 145,005 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 30.5 oz
- BTC VS GOLD MARKET CAP: 8.62%
Technical analysis
- The above diagram shows the monthly performance of the cake, the native tools and the government of pandakeswap, in candlestick format.
- While the cake has risen over 70% this month, prices remain locked in a three -year consolidation channel.
- Long -term periods of range often play with a violent movement in both directions. Take care of a bullish breakout as it can lead to a sharp demonstration.
Crypto shares
- COINBASE GLOBAL (COIN): CLOSED Tuesday at $ 375.78 (-2.67%), +0.62% to $ 378.10 in Pre-Market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): Closed to $ 148.72 ( +0.14%), +1.14% to $ 150.41
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $ 39.58 ( +1.91%), +3.61% to $ 41.01
- Bullish (BLSH): Closed to $ 65.1 (-5.36%), +1.01% to $ 65.76
- Mara Holdings (Mara): Closed to $ 20.25 (-1.56%), +0.69% to $ 20.39
- Riot Platforms (Riot): Closed to $ 21.47 (-0.42%), +1.30% to $ 21.75
- Core Scientific (Corz): Closed to $ 17.1 (-4.52%), +0.88% to $ 17.25
- CLEANSPARK (CLSK): CLOSED TO $ 17.96 ( +3.04%), +3.17% TO $ 18.53
- COINSHARES VALKYRIE BITCOIN MINERS ETF (WGMI): CLOSED TO $ 53.38 ( +2.08%), +1.12% TO $ 53.98
- Exodus Movement (Exod): Closed to $ 29.71 (-6.28%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (Mstr): Closed to $ 328.4 (-8.7%), +1.98% to $ 334.89
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed to $ 28.36 (-7.77%), +1.09% to $ 28.67
- Sharplink Gaming (SBet): Closed to $ 17.77 (-7.64%), +0.62% to $ 17.88
- Upexi (Upxi): Closed to $ 7.05 (-8.44%), +0.85% to $ 7.11
- Lite strategy (lits): closed to $ 2.45 (-5.77%), +2.45% for $
Etf is flowing
SPOT BTC ETFS
- Daily Net Tream: $ 875.6 million
- Cumulative net streams: 62.09 billion dollars
- Collected BTC holdings ~ 1.35 million
SPOT ETH ETFS
- Daily Net Tream: $ 420.9 million
- Cumulative net streams: $ 15.03 billion
- Collected Eth Holdings ~ 6.79 million
Source: Father’s page -Investors
While you were asleep
