As 2025 draws to a close, investors’ attention is converging on two big questions: how quickly Washington will deliver a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, and whether advances in quantum computing pose an imminent threat to blockchain security, crypto-asset manager Grayscale said in a Monday report.
In Grayscale’s view, one of these debates is likely to reshape markets in the short term, while the other may prove to be more of a distraction than a driver.
The firm’s analysts expect a two-tier crypto market structure bill to become law in 2026, marking a milestone for the asset class.
While negotiations over key details remain, the analysts said the broad direction is clear: Lawmakers are moving toward a traditional financial market rulebook for crypto, covering registration and disclosure requirements, clearer classifications of digital assets and protections for insiders.
A more complete and harmonized regulatory framework in the US and potentially across other major economies could have practical implications for adoption.
Regulated financial services firms may become more comfortable with having digital assets on their balance sheets, while increased legal clarity may encourage institutions to trade directly on blockchains. The report argued that such developments would mark the early stages of a more institutional era for crypto markets.
In contrast, the analysts see concerns about quantum computing as a legitimate but overstated theme heading into 2026.
The firm expects the issue to generate headlines and debate, but says it is unlikely to significantly affect asset prices in the near term. Grayscale acknowledged that sufficiently powerful quantum computers could, in theory, undermine today’s cryptographic standards by deriving private keys from public ones, potentially enabling fraudulent transactions.
In the long term, Grayscale says that most blockchains, including Bitcoin, along with much of the wider digital economy, will need to upgrade to post-quantum cryptography. But the firm believes these risks remain remote for now. While markets may ultimately assess blockchains based on how prepared they are to address the quantum challenge, this will not affect valuations in a meaningful way next year.
Read more: Crypto asset manager Bitwise says bitcoin will break its four-year cycle in 2026
