Quiet descent marks Pakistan’s transformation from a water-stressed country to one on the brink of water scarcity
Experts fear that the land in Pakistan will run out, as the country’s water availability per population has fallen from about 5,000 cubic meters at the time of independence to less than 1,000 today. This quiet descent marks its shift from a water-stressed to a water-scarce nation, where the relentless thirst for groundwater outstrips nature’s power to restore it.
This warning came during a seminar titled ‘Pakistan’s Groundwater Crisis: Policy Lessons and a Framework for Sustainable Resource Use’. The seminar was organized by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) in collaboration with the Planning Commission’s RASTA initiative.
The session had Nazam Maqbool, social scientist and project manager at RASTA, as keynote speaker, and was moderated by Dr. Muhammad Faisal Ali, research fellow at PIDE.
Dr. Faisal Ali highlighted Pakistan’s rapid and troubling journey from a water-stressed to a water-scarce country. “Per capita water availability has fallen from over 5,000 cubic meters in 1947 to less than 1,000 today,” he said. “While the public debate often centers on surface water and climate change, the depletion of groundwater – Pakistan’s silent lifeline – remains dangerously neglected.”
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He warned that water forms the basis of civilization and food security, and that its mismanagement threatens both human and economic survival.
In his presentation, Maqbool described Pakistan as one of the driest countries in the world, receiving only 494 millimeters of rainfall annually. “The Indus River system supplies nearly 96 percent of our total water supply, with 78 percent originating outside Pakistan’s borders,” he noted.
He pointed out that Pakistan has the world’s fourth largest groundwater reservoir and is also the fourth largest groundwater user globally. The Indus Plain alone stores nearly 400 million acre-feet of fresh water—about eighty times the combined capacity of all major dams. Still, the country extracts about 65 cubic kilometers of groundwater annually, far exceeding its natural recharge rate of 55 cubic kilometers.
Tracing the evolution of groundwater use, Maqbool explained that canal construction between 1870 and 1930 under colonial rule caused widespread water scarcity and salinity. To address this, the Salinity Control and Reclamation Project of the 1960s led to the installation of thousands of tube wells.
“What began as a recovery effort has today become over-extraction,” he noted. “Electricity subsidies and drought-driven policies have encouraged unregulated drilling – now over 1.5 million wells across the country.”
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The consequences are severe. According to Maqbool, 70 percent of the urban and over 80 percent of the rural population rely on unsafe drinking water sources, exposing nearly 60 million people to arsenic contamination.
More than 4.5 million hectares of land have been affected by salinity and waterlogging, particularly in Punjab and Sindh, while industrial and agricultural pollutants continue to degrade water quality.
“Pakistan now ranks second globally in groundwater stress in the Indus basin,” he said. “Lahore alone loses three feet of groundwater every year.” In terms of governance failures, he identified the absence of a binding national groundwater law, overlapping institutional mandates, weak provincial coordination after the 18th Amendment and chronically underfunded utilities as key obstacles.
“Our current water rate structure encourages over-pumping,” he noted, noting that only 24 percent of operating costs are recovered, while Punjab’s water rate — $0.12 per cubic meter – remains well below the global average of $2.36.
To overcome these challenges, Maqbool proposed a seven-pillar framework for sustainable groundwater management. His plan includes the creation of a national groundwater council to coordinate provincial policies, introduction of licensing and measurement systems, comprehensive aquifer mapping, real-time data portals and integrated water management.
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He called for a shift in agriculture from water-intensive crops such as sugarcane and rice to less demanding, high-yielding alternatives such as pulses and oilseeds. He also advocated promoting drip and sprinkler irrigation systems and replacing blanket subsidies with performance-based incentives.
Citing international examples, he noted that Israel meets 25 percent of its water needs by recycling 90 percent of treated wastewater, while American cities such as St. Paul and Duluth have cut their water use in half through efficiency reforms.
“Pakistan must reform its pricing system, strengthen cross-border cooperation within the Indus basin and invest in human capital through education, training and awareness,” he urged.
Concluding his speech, Maqbool stressed: “Pakistan’s groundwater crisis cannot be solved in isolation. It requires systemic reform – across governance, science, technology and behaviour. The government must act now to monitor, recharge and manage groundwater sustainably to secure our nation’s future.”
Summarizing the discussion, Dr. Faisal Ali that water management should not only be seen as a resource issue but as a pillar of national stability and security. “Pakistan’s future depends on how wisely we manage the water beneath our feet,” he said.
