Bitcoin’s future in an AI-driven world may depend less on code and more on central banks.
In a new note, Greg Cipolaro, global head of research at financial and infrastructure firm NYDIG, argued that artificial intelligence will affect bitcoin mainly through macroeconomic channels and its impact on the labor market.
The most important variables are growth, employment, real interest rates and liquidity. Bitcoin, he writes, sits downstream of these forces.
If automation cuts jobs and wages, consumer demand could weaken, and in a severe case, falling incomes would strain debt payments and depress asset prices.
That fear appears to be well-founded. Just this week, Jack Dorsey’s fintech firm Block revealed its decline toward its pre-pandemic size, cutting staff by about 40%. Dorsey cited AI-enabled efficiency for the job cuts, something theorized in Citrini’s research on AI doom that spooked the market this week.
In such a scenario, policymakers may respond with lower interest rates or fiscal spending to stabilize the economy. That surge of liquidity could support bitcoin, which has often tracked shifts in the global money supply.
A different outcome would look less friendly to the cryptocurrency. If AI boosts productivity and economic growth without major job losses, real yields can rise and central banks can keep policy tight.
Higher real interest rates have historically weighed on bitcoin by raising the opportunity cost of holding it and making risky assets less attractive.
Change in demand
Anxiety about AI echoes past moments of upheaval in human society.
The steam engine displaced manual labor in factories and on farms. Electrification then rewired entire industries. Later, computers and the Internet automated clerical work and reshaped retail, media and finance.
Each wave triggered fears of permanent job losses. In the early 1900s, factory mechanization sparked labor unrest as machines replaced skilled craftsmen. In the 1980s and 1990s, personal computers cut off typing pools and back office staff. More recently, e-commerce helped erode brick-and-mortar retailer roles.
Yet overall demand did not collapse. Productivity increased. New industries absorbed displaced workers, although the transition proved uneven and painful. Today we have industries that were unimaginable before the dawn of the internet. Think cloud computing.
Cipolaro argued that AI may follow a similar pattern. As a general technology, it requires companies to redesign workflows and invest in complementary tools. Over time, this process tends to expand production capacity rather than shrink it.
“The implication is not that disruption will be painless, but that the equilibrium response to new technology has historically been integration, not obsolescence,” Cipolaro wrote. “Society’s reaction to artificial intelligence is likely to follow the same pattern.”
For bitcoin, that distinction is important. If AI ultimately lifts long-term growth, the structural backdrop may diverge from the short-term shocks that often drive liquidity injections.
Meanwhile, adoption could also increase thanks to agent payments, which would essentially make software pay other pieces of software without human involvement. One of Bitcoin’s earliest visions centered on machine-to-machine payments, and AI may be the tool needed to make them a reality.
Still, there are currently no incentives for a widespread rollout. Credit cards bundle rewards and short-term credit, features that stablecoins have yet to match, Cipolaro noted.
Ultimately, while the rise of artificial intelligence brings new challenges, what matters is the human response to the disruption it brings. If AI triggers a deflationary shock and forces the money printer to turn back on, or if it fuels a productivity boom that raises real dividends, bitcoin will reflect that.
