The war in Iran and the rise in oil shook global stock markets this month. Another bitcoin hardly budged – because large traders, institutional flows and significant wallet holders stepped in under the dips and kept demand steady even when traditional markets faltered.
Major oil benchmarks, Brent and WTI, are up 30% this month and are trading above $100 a barrel. barrel early Monday. The massive rise has weighed on Asian stock markets and also caused downward volatility in Asian and European stocks.
However, Bitcoin is up nearly 4% to $70,200 this month, according to CoinDesk data. The market has been supported by large traders buying BTC over-the-counter (OTC) in a privately negotiated deal, according to Paul Howard, senior director at high-frequency trading firm and liquidity provider Wincent.
“Demand has been driven by some large over-the-counter products [OTC] deals, positioning for a quick end to the conflict in Iran, and also MSTR’s acquisition. The timing of which, with the geopolitical events, may be an indicator of confidence returning to risk assets,” Howard said in an email to CoinDesk.
OTC desks are private trading venues where buyers and sellers can conduct large cryptocurrency transactions without going through public exchanges. Instead of placing orders on open order books, trades are negotiated directly between parties or facilitated by a broker. Large traders and institutions typically trade over the counter to avoid influencing the spot market price.
Howard also highlighted renewed investor interest in the popular “carry trade,” where traders short (bearish bet) Strategy (MSTR) stock while buying bitcoin ETFs at the same time. The strategy profits if BTC rises faster than MSTR falls, allowing traders to hedge risk while still benefiting from bitcoin’s movements.
Speaking of ETFs, the 11 US exchange-traded funds recorded net inflows of more than $700 million this month, according to data source SoSoValue. It is a sign of renewed institutional appetite for the cryptocurrency.
“Institutional flows have also turned supportive. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have seen net inflows of about $1.7 billion since the end of February. This reversed a stretch of outflows that lasted about four months. For the March 8-10 period, flows contributed to a weekly net inflow of about $568 million,” said Vikram Subburaj, managing director of India Exchange, Giottus.
Nexo, meanwhile, pointed to the Strategy’s continued accumulation of bitcoin as a major bullish factor. The Nasdaq-listed firm bought 17,994 BTC between March 2 and March 8, increasing its total holdings to 738,731 BTC.
The latest purchase matches several days of new bitcoin on the market.
“The network has now surpassed 20 million BTC mined, leaving less than 1 million coins to be issued. At around 450 BTC per day, incremental supply remains limited. The strategy added 17,994 BTC, equivalent to approximately five weeks of issuance, bringing its holdings to around 3.7% of the Nevu analyst,” the Kaliya analyst told. CoinDesk.
Demand also drove through bullish on-chain activity.
“Larger wallets with more than 1,000 BTC added about 0.3% to their balances during recent dips. This points to cautious accumulation during periods of weakness,” said Vikram Subburaj.
He added that more than 400,000 BTC recently changed hands between $60,000 and $70,000.
