Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, a daily overview of top stories in US hours and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Diary Americas.
Entering the “Year of the Horse”, crypto markets look less like a victory parade and more like a racehorse at the starting gate: muscles tense after a long stumble.
In particular, the ETH versus BTC chart is attracting attention because it is starting to look like the same step pattern seen before the last major crypto bull run.
The last time Gold peaked, the following happened:
– $ETH bound 9 months before.
– $ETH fell by 30-40%.This time;
– $ETH bound 9 months before
– $ETH has already fallen 31%.What happened after that?
An increase of 300%+ against #Bitcoin for Ethereum and the bull market… pic.twitter.com/CH8SRjyZm7
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) 1 February 2026
The Year of the Horse metaphor is less about fate and more about pace. Year of the Horse in market folklore is associated with speed, abrupt changes in direction and momentum that builds quickly once it starts. Applied to crypto, this means an expectation of sharper swings, faster capital turnover and the possibility of management shifting away from pure bitcoin dominance towards higher beta assets if liquidity conditions stabilize.
The reason the ETH versus BTC chart is being noticed is because of a sequence that occurred once before and now seems to be repeating itself.
In the last major cycle, ETH pegged against bitcoin about 9 months before gold peaked, then suffered another brutal 30%-40% relative decline that convinced many that the deal was broken.
Instead, the final stumble marked the bottom. As gold cooled and defensive positioning unraveled, capital rotated back to higher beta cryptos, sending Ethereum more than 300% higher against bitcoin and helping ignite the broader bull market.
Today, the structure looks familiar rather than identical. The ETH-to-BTC chart hit a relatively low level about 9 months before gold’s recent high and has already fallen about 31%, placing it in the same historical pullback range that preceded a violent reversal up.
QCP said traders are still buying protection against further downside, but not with the same urgency seen during last year’s sharp selloff, suggesting caution rather than outright panic.
Meanwhile, JP Morgan Private Bank’s Yuxuan Tang wrote in an email that gold’s long-term fundamentals remain intact despite recent pullbacks, arguing that central bank and institutional demand continue to provide a structural floor.
The push-and-pull between robust safe-haven demand and washed-out crypto positioning is what gives the ETH-BTC relationship its intrigue. In horse-year terms, the market is not yet sprinting, but it may not be lagging any longer.
However, the ratio is more a measure of temperament than a prediction, suggesting that if liquidity stabilizes and bitcoin’s dominance loosens, capital turnover could accelerate rapidly. Horses don’t tend to walk when they finally move. They gallop.
And that gallop, at least according to the prediction markets, looks more like a run from current levels, not to a new record high. Kalshi bettors say bitcoin will hit 105K in 2026, while on Polymarket, punters assign just a 29% chance of it breaking the magic $126,000 mark.
Hopefully this horse can finish the race.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin is trading near $78,800 as a brief liquidation-driven rally runs into thin support above $70,000, leaving markets focused on the $60,000 to $65,000 long-term holder and the 200-week average zone as the next big floor unless US stocks roll over.
ETH: Ethereum is trading near $2,345 after a brief rebound from the weekend sell-off, but with bigger weekly losses than bitcoin and weaker structural support, markets remain cautious that the price could continue to decline unless broader risk appetite improves.
Gold: Gold is trading near $4,830 as prices try to stabilize after a margin-driven sell-off, but heightened volatility and a firmer dollar are keeping the recovery fragile rather than signaling a clean return to the earlier uptrend.
Nikkei 225: The Nikkei 225 rose about 2.4% to lead gains across Asia as optimism over a new US-India trade deal lifted regional risk sentiment, with South Korea’s Kospi rising over 5% and broader markets tracking a rebound in US stocks despite continued volatility in gold, silver and crypto.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- CZ Pushes Back Against Binance ‘FUD’ As Blame For Crypto Crash Continues (CoinDesk)
- Jeffrey Epstein was an early investor in Coinbase, emails reveal (decrypt)
