The worst of bitcoin’s 50% move may already be behind us.
The Hash Ribbon indicator is close to signaling the end of a three month miner capitulation. One of the longest capitulations ever, according to Glassnode data.
The metric compares the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of the hash rate and is based on the observation that bitcoin often bottoms when miners are under maximum financial stress. Capitulation occurs when mining revenues fall below operating costs, forcing less efficient miners to shut down machines and sell BTC reserves to finance electricity, debt and overhead. This combination reduces the hash rate and adds sustained selling pressure to the market.
A recovery signal is triggered when the 30-day hashrate moving average crosses back above the 60-day mark, indicating that miners are coming back online and network stress is easing, and that moment is approaching. Historically, when this crossover coincides with improved price momentum, it has marked strong accumulation zones.
Since late November, when the metric first inverted, bitcoin has fallen from around $90,000 to a low near $60,000 in early February before rebounding to around $65,000 at press time.
Such major corrections are typical during miner stress events. Since 2011, there have been around 20 mine capitulations, most coinciding with local or major bottoms, including January 2015, December 2018 and December 2022.
Hash rate, which is the total computing power that secures the network, is now on the rise again, signaling renewed confidence among miners.
At the same time, bitcoin is now trading below the estimated average production cost of $66,000, a level often associated with deep value, according to checkonchain data. The last time this happened was November 2022, when BTC bottomed out near $15,500.
