Despite a shaky start to the day, cryptos held on to most of their overnight gains as optimism surrounding a possible government shutdown resolution helped stabilize risk sentiment.
After significant gains late into the weekend, bitcoin fell 1.5% around the time the US stock market opened, but returned to trade near $106,000 by late afternoon, recovering much of what was lost earlier in the day. Ether fell 0.5% to just below $3,600, while Solana’s SOL rose 1.1% to $167.
Among other altcoins, XRP led gains of 9% amid growing anticipation that a spot-based ETF may soon begin trading on US exchanges. Zcash and Monero which had posted big gains in recent weeks, cooled and fell 9% and 11% respectively.
Crypto-related stocks also looked higher after heavy losses last week. Coinbase (COIN) rose 4.1%, Robinhood (HOOD) rose 4.8%, eToro (ETOR) rose 9%, and Gemini (GEMI) rose 5.2%. Traditional markets also rose, with the S&P 500 up 1.6% and the Nasdaq up 2.2%.
The rally in crypto prices came as traders grew more confident that the longest US government shutdown, now stretching to 39 days, may be nearing its end. A Sunday night post by Donald Trump teasing a $2,000 “dividend” funded by tariff revenue added to the upbeat mood. Checking Polymarket odds, prediction market traders are now giving an 86% chance that the shutdown could be over between November 12 and 15.
Shutdown stops cryptopolitics
Still, the shutdown has created a mixed backdrop for crypto, argued David Nage, head of research at digital asset investment firm Arca, in a Monday note.
On the positive side, the end of the shutdown could release $150-200 billion from the Treasury General Account (TGA) into bank reserves, he said. That liquidity boost has historically benefited risk assets, including crypto.
But Nage also warned that the ongoing shutdown stalls crucial legislative progress, including the CLARITY Act and the Senate Digital Asset Market Structure Bill. With time running out before the 2026 midterm, a longer delay could push US digital asset regulation off the table for a while, he explained.
“If comprehensive digital asset legislation is delayed until 2026 and then dies in mid-term politics, the industry will miss out on the regulatory clarity needed to attract institutional capital and achieve sustainable growth.”
The shutdown’s impact on crypto policy has been quiet but potentially more damaging than recent volatility in repo markets, he said. “The bigger story for digital asset adoption over the next three to five years is being shaped behind the scenes… and the Banking Committee’s staff room is currently dark because of the shutdown,” Nage explained.
“If the shutdown ends in November, we can benefit from both a liquidity injection and a legislative opportunity,” he said. “If it drags out in December, the legislation may miss its window.”
