How Low Can Bitcoin (BTC) Price Fall? Analyst sets $84K as Downside target

Bitcoin saw no rejection on Friday and held at a low below $95,000 late in the US day after a tough week that dragged prices to their lowest since May.

The biggest cryptocurrency is once again underperforming US stocks, with major US indices holding on to minor gains a few minutes before the end of trading. BTC was on course to record a 9% loss for the week, its worst performance in eight months.

Ethereum trading below $3,200, underperformed, falling more than 11% since Monday, while Solana’s SOL lost 15% in the same period. held up better, falling just 1%, perhaps buoyed by this week’s debut of its first spot ETF in the US, issued by Canary Capital.

Crypto-related stocks fared mixed after Thursday’s steep losses. MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest public holder of bitcoin, fell another 4% to below $200 for the first time since October 2024. Exchange Bullish (BLSH), Ethereum treasury BitMine (BMNR), miners CleanSpark (CLSK), MARA Holdings (MARA) and Hive Digital (HIVE) fell 4%-7%.

On the positive side, miner Hut 8 jumped 6% following earnings results from US Bitcoin, a joint venture with the Trump family, while digital brokerage Robinhood ( HOOD ) and BTC miner Riot Platforms ( RIOT ) rose around 3%.

‘Information vacuum’ clouds investor confidence

The current market decline is largely driven by a lack of clarity on key US economic conditions and the subsequent monetary policy direction, Bitfinex analysts said. That data blackout was due to the longest US government shutdown, which lasted from Oct. 1 through Thursday, which suspended the government’s inflation and jobs data releases.

“The market’s retracement is the result of an information vacuum and political uncertainty,” they wrote in a Friday note shared with CoinDesk. “Key economic data is still missing to guide the market and the Federal Reserve, putting investors on standby.

However, the spending shutdown bill that lawmakers passed only provides funding to keep the government open until Jan. 30, weighing on investor sentiment. “The temporary funding bill doesn’t solve the uncertainty — it just pushes the issue further down the road.” Bitfinex analysts added.

Noelle Acheson, author of Crypto Is Macro Now, said the recent pullback was a necessary correction after months of range-bound consolidation that failed to sustain a breakout above $120,000. “We need to get through this flush before we can breathe easier,” she wrote. “When that happens, the long-term case for BTC is strengthened – but we’re not there yet.”

The main driver for BTC remains macro liquidity, Acheson added. While another Fed rate cut may not come until later in the first quarter of 2026, expectations of balance sheet adjustments or other easing and “liquidity injections” could help rebuild optimism around risk assets, including BTC, she said.

BTC went to $84K, says Ledn CIO

Meanwhile, technical indicators suggest bitcoin may still have plenty of room to fall, said John Glover, chief investment officer at crypto lending firm Ledn.

He noted that a break below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of just below $100,000 opened the way to the next key support level located at around $84,000.

Analyst John Glover outlines bitcoin’s bear market trajectory (Ledn/TradingView)

Glover believes the current pullback is part of bitcoin’s bear market, predicting volatile action for the coming months. “We will likely see prices back above $100,000 before a sustained break below $90,000,” he said, noting that the full correction could play out through the summer of 2026.

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