The FTX collapse may seem like a distant memory as bitcoin (BTC) fell to around $15,500 in November 2022. The mood during the period was one of extreme fear and the industry never thought it would recover.

But just over two years later, bitcoin is trading above $100,000 with a new presumably crypto-friendly US administration at the helm. Donald Trump is now officially the 47th President of the United States, but he has yet to announce any crypto policy.

One of the many discussions surrounding bitcoin is the four-year cycle analysis, structured around its halving program, which cuts the supply every four years. We tend to see similar cycles play out with a huge price increase the year after the halving, while this current cycle continues to mirror the previous two cycles.

So far, bitcoin is up about 550% from the cycle lows during the FTX collapse (black line). The chart shows that at this point in the current cycle, between the 2015 and 2018 cycles, bitcoin’s (blue line) price had also risen by about a similar amount from the cycle low that occurred on January 14, 2015.

It is important to note that Glassnode data takes today’s closing price at 00:00 UTC, which may differ from other trading platforms.

The green line shows that during the 2018 to 2022 cycle, BTC at this point in the cycle was up around 1,300%, over double the gain the token has charted so far.

If bitcoin continues to track the cycle from 2015 to 2018, it would end about 1,100% higher from the cycle low at the end of January 1. quarter 2025, which will put a bitcoin at $186,000. The top of the cycle would then occur around October of this year at 11,000% higher, putting a cycle top of around $1.7 million.

There are many other ways to compare this to previous cycles, such as comparing it to US presidential administrations. According to a post on X from the Bitcoin Archive, bitcoin increased 20-fold during Donald Trump’s first term as president. A return of just 10x would give bitcoin about $1 million from here.