Revised forecasts show slower export growth, rising imports and fiscal challenges
The International Monetary Fund has projected that Pakistan’s gross domestic product could reach Rs 193,630 billion by 2030, while exports are expected to rise to US$ 46 billion, significantly lower than the government’s target of US$ 60 billion. For the next fiscal year, Pakistan’s total exports are estimated at $36.46 billion, with exports expected to reach $40 billion in 2028 and around $43 billion in 2029.
The IMF released these revised projections as part of changes to Pakistan’s Key Economic Indicators Framework. Sources indicate that according to the IMF estimates, Pakistan’s GDP size will increase by about 68,000 billion. Rs cumulatively from FY 2026 to 2030. However, the GDP target of Rs 129,517 billion is unlikely to be met. Rs set for the current fiscal year will be met and GDP is now expected to reach approximately 0002 billion. Rs.
On tax revenue, the IMF noted that the Federal Board of Revenue is unlikely to achieve a tax-to-GDP ratio of 15% even in 2030. The ratio is expected to be 11.2% in the next fiscal year and may fall to 11.1% between 2028 and 2030. The FBR is expected to collect around 97 billion. Rs 21,500 billion in 2030, while non-tax revenue is expected to be Rs 3,681 billion this year and may reach Rs 3,861 billion in 2030.
The IMF report also addresses the budget deficit, projecting a gradual decline from 5.1% of GDP in the current fiscal year to 3.1% in 2030. To cover the deficit, Pakistan will require approximately Rs28 trillion in total financing between 2026 and 2030, with around Rs2.3 trillion. expected from external sources.
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Regarding public debt, the IMF warned that outstanding debt could rise to 117,441 billion. Rs in 2028, Rs 8,796 billion in 2029 and Rs 9,380 billion in 2030.
The IMF also warned that while the government aims to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio to 13%, current projections suggest this target is unlikely to be met by 2030.
On trade, the IMF’s forecast contrasts with the government’s claim, which estimates a deficit of $13.79 billion in exports. Pakistan’s exports are now expected to reach $46 billion by 2030, compared to the earlier target of $60 billion. Exports are expected to be $36.46 billion next fiscal year, $40 billion in 2028 and $43 billion in 2029.
Imports are expected to increase significantly. The IMF expects $64 billion in imports this fiscal year, $66.86 billion in 2027, $72.90 billion in 2028, $77 billion in 2029 and $82.81 billion in 2030, representing an increase of $18.70 billion in total imports in 2030.
Sources noted that the federal government had initially set a target of achieving $60 billion in exports within three years, which was later extended to five years to achieve the $60 billion target.
