Bitcoin investors, it’s time to buckle up.
Jon Glover, Elliott Wave analyst and Ledn’s Chief Investment Officer, known for his accurate market forecasts, goes against the bullish consensus with a stark warning: The Bitcoin bull market that began in early 2023 appears to be over after a recent drop from $126,000 to $104,000.
Glover now predicts a sustained bear market that could push prices down to $70,000 or lower, a potential drop of more than 35% from the current market price of around $108,000.
“I am convinced that we have completed the five-wave upward movement and are now entering a bear market that could last until at least the end of 2026,” Glover said. “I expect bitcoin to trade between $70K and $80K, and possibly even lower.”
Glover explained that while the possibility of bitcoin retesting its record highs around $124,000 or climbing a little higher cannot be ruled out, the broader trend has now turned bearish, meaning prices are likely to be lower a few months from now.
The Elliott Wave Theory
Introduced by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1938, Elliott Wave Theory is based on the idea that collective investor psychology moves in predictable cycles. These cycles form a five-wave structure in the direction of the main trend, with three impulse waves and two corrective waves.
Bitcoin’s bullish five-wave pattern started in late 2022, when prices were below $20,000, and culminated in the fifth wave, which peaked at a record above $126,000 earlier this month.
Initially, wave 5 was predicted to bring prices to between $140,000 and $150,000 by the end of the year. Glover made this call in early August amid growing bearish concerns after a sharp drop from $120,000 to $112,000.
While prices rallied as expected, momentum stalled beyond $125,000 this month, prompting Glover to warn that a repeated failure to hold above that level would weaken the bull case. Subsequently, bitcoin fell to $105,000 last week, confirming an early end to the bull run.
“Now that we’ve broken down below $108k, I’m ready to make the call on whether we’re on the orange path in the chart below and therefore looking for a move up to $145k, or are we on the yellow path, which would mean we’ve seen the highs in this market,” Glover said. “Here’s my call: THE BITCOIN BULL IS OVER!”
The bearish outlook is consistent with bitcoin’s historical trend of peaking and then entering a bear market about 18 months after each halving event. The most recent halving took place in April 2024.
Supporting Glover’s bearish sentiment, data from Amberdata shows that BTC’s Deribit-listed put options, which provide downside protection, are trading at a premium compared to calls through the September 2026 expiration. This suggests that some traders are preparing for downside risks that extend well into next year.
