India is likely to look above average monsoon rain for the second straight year in 2025, the government said on Tuesday and maintained its forecast from April and kept alive the opportunity for higher agricultural production and economic growth.

Good rain will help reduce food prices, keep inflation within the central bank’s comfort tape and allow the world’s largest rice exporter to send more of staples.

The monsoon is expected to amount to 106% of the long -term average this year, said M. Ravichandran, secretary of the Ministry of Earth.

The Indian Meteorological Department defines average rainfall as between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season from June to September.

The monsoon delivers almost 70% of the rain needed to water crops and replenish reservoirs and aquifers in India. With almost half of the country’s agricultural land that has no irrigation, it depends on the rain with June-September to grow more crops.

Over average rainfall is probably above central and southern India, while southwestern parts of the country could receive average rainfall, Ravichandran said.

Northeast states are likely to receive rainfall below average, he said.

The country is likely to receive 108% of the long -term average rainfall in June, Ravichandran said.

The monsoon, which usually arrives over the southern tip of the Kerala state around June 1, hit the coast of Kerala on Saturday, eight days earlier than usual, marking its earliest arrival of 16 years.

After covering Kerala, it quickly moved to most parts of the west coast, including Financial Capital Mumbai, almost two weeks earlier than usual.

The prognosis for rainfall above average will lead to higher planting of water-intensive crops such as rice and sugar cane, a New Delhi-based dealer said with a global trading house.

“Already, soil moisture levels are better this year due to higher rainfall before Monsun. Now IMD predicts of surplus Profit Prepuffer will give farmers confidence,” he said.

India is the world’s largest exporter of rice and onions and the second largest producer of sugar. After excess rainfall in 2024, India lifted Curbs on rice and onion exports, but allowed limited sugar exports of 1 million tons.

“If the rain stays good all season, rice and sugar production could be higher this year, and India could end up exporting more,” said a New Delhi-based dealer.