- India, considering the plan to expand Canal on the Chenab River, awarded to Pakistan.
- Delhi, weighing other projects that could reduce the flow of water to Pakistan.
- India suspended participation in the Indus Waters Treaty after Kashmir attacks.
India is considering plans to dramatically increase the water it draws from a larger river that feeds Pakistani farms downstream, as part of the retaliatory action for a deadly April attack on tourists that New Delhi accuses on Islamabad, according to four people familiar with the case.
Delhi suspended his participation in the Indus Waters Treaty in 1960, which controls the use of the Indus River System shortly after 26 civilians in Indian illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) were killed.
Pakistan has denied involvement in the incident, but the agreement has not been revived despite the two nuclear armed neighbors who agreed on a ceasefire last week after the worst matches between them for decades.
Following the attack on April 22, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi officials ordered to accelerate the planning and execution of projects at Chenab, Jhelum and Indus rivers, three water masses in the Indus system, primarily designated for Pakistan’s use, six people told Reuters.
One of the most important plans discussed involving doubling to 120 km length of the Ranbir channel at Chenab, which runs through India to Pakistan’s agricultural power in Punjab, said two of the population. The channel was built in the 19th century, long before the treaty was signed.
India is authorized to draw a limited amount of water from Chenab to irrigation, but an expanded channel – as experts said could take years to construct – would allow it to divert 150 cubic meters of water per second, up from approx. 40 cubic meters at the moment, the four people said, referring to official discussions and documents they had seen.
Details of the Indian government’s considerations of expanding Ranbir have not been reported previously. The discussions started last month and continued even after the ceasefire, one of the population said.
The Indian ministries who were responsible for water and foreign affairs as well as Modi’s office did not respond to Reuters‘Question. The Indian Hydroelectric Giant NHPC, which operates many projects in the Indus system, also did not respond to an E email sought comment.
Modi said in a fiery speech this week that “water and blood cannot flow together,” though he does not refer to the treaty. Spokesman for Indian Foreign Ministry Randhir Jaiswal told journalists on Tuesday that India “will hold the Treaty in Abeyance until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably loses his support for cross -border terrorism”.
Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told legislators this week that the government had written to India that argued that the suspension of the treaty was illegal and that Islamabad considered it to be in force.
Islamabad said after India suspended the Treaty in April that it considered “any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan” to be a “act of war.”
About 80% of the Pakistani farms are dependent on the Indus system, as well as almost all hydropower projects serving the country at approx. 250 million.
Any effort from Delhi to build dams, channels or other infrastructure that would withhold or divert a significant amount of power from the Indus system to India “would take years to realize,” said water security expert David Michel of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
But Pakistan has had a preview of the kind of pressure it could encounter from India: Water at an important reception point in Pakistan fell briefly by as much as 90% in early May, after India started maintenance work on some Indus projects.
Success threatened
The Indus system runs through some of the world’s most geopolitically tense areas that originate from Near Lake Mansarovar in Tibet and talk through India’s north and Pakistan’s east and southeast before emptying into the Arabian Ocean.
The treaty is largely seen as one of the world’s most successful water sharing agreements, after surviving several great wars and long -term tensions between India and Pakistan.
Islamabad has previously opposed many Indian projects in the Indus system, while Delhi said after the IIOJK attack that it had tried to renegotiate the treaty since 2023 to explain the population and its increasing need for pure hydro energy.
The treaty is largely limiting India to creating water height projects with a low influence on the three rivers assigned to Pakistan. Delhi has the freedom to utilize the water in three other rivers – Sutlej, Beas and Ravi side elves – as it is appropriate.
Alongside the plans to expand the Ranbir channel, India is also considering projects that are likely to reduce the flow of water to Pakistan from rivers assigned to this country, according to two government documents seen by Reuters and interviews with five people familiar with the case.
A document, an undated note prepared by a government company for officials considering irrigation plans, suggests that water from Indus, Chenab and Jhelum “potentially distributed to rivers” in three North Indian states.
One of the people said the document, whose details have not been previously reported, was created for discussions with the Ministry of Power Officials after the April 22 attack.
Delhi has also created a list of hydroelectric projects in its jammu and kashmir territory, which it hopes, will expand the capacity to 12,000 megawatts, from the current 3,360MW.
The list created by the Ministry of Power and seen by Reuters was not dated. A person who is familiar with the document said it was created before the Kashmir incident, but is actively discussed by government officials.
The potential projects also include dams that can store large amounts of water in what would be a first one for India in the Indus river system, according to two people who are familiar with the case.
India has identified at least five possible warehouse projects, four of which are on side elves of Chenab and Jhelum, according to the Power Ministry document.
Political Krangel
International Relations Expert Happymon Jacob at Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University said India’s new focus on the Indus Waters Treaty reflected an attempt to push Pakistan over Kashmir.
“With the latest conflict, Delhi can refuse to discuss Kashmir with Pakistan in any format,” he said. “Delhi has not only gradually narrowed the extent of bilateral conversations, but has also limited the agenda and focuses only on specific questions such as IWT.”
Pakistan has said that it is preparing litigation in several international forums, including the World Bank, which facilitates the Treaty as well as the regular arbitration court or the international justice in The Hague.
“Water should not weapon,” Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb told Reuters Monday. “We won’t even consider some scenario that … does not take into account the reintroduction of this treaty.”
Michel, the US-based expert, said concern about the treaty’s suspension was not limited to Islamabad.
“As geopolitical competition throughout the region is elaborated, more than a few Indian observers fear that Delhi’s use of water against Islamabad risks licensing Beijing to adopt the same strategy against India,” he said.
