India’s most important economic adviser says Trump’s customs duties could shave 0.5% off GDP: Report

US President Donald Trump includes Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the event “Namaste Trump” at Sardar Patel Gujarat Stadium, in Ahmedabad, India, February 24, 2020.
  • US last month doubled duty rates on imports from India to 50%.
  • Indian FM says the country continues to buy Russian oil.
  • Two-way trade in the US India was $ 129 billion dollars in 2024.

US President Donald Trump’s 50% duty on India could reduce the country’s gross domestic product by half a percent this year, the country’s largest economic adviser against Anantha Nageswaran said in a Bloomberg TV interview Monday.

“Depending on how long it lasts even in this financial year, it can be translated into a GDP effect at somewhere between 0.5% to 0.6%,” he told the TV station.

Trump, who seeks to mediate a cessation of the Ukraine conflict, has said that India’s Oil Import helps Fond Moscow’s war effort and last month doubled tariffs on imports from India to 50%.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said last week that the world’s third largest oil importer and consumer will continue to buy Russian oil as it turns out financially.

Two-way trade in the United States India was $ 129 billion in 2024 with a $ 45.8 billion trading deficit, according to US Census Bureau data.

Export groups estimate that the tariffs can affect nearly 55% of India’s $ 87 billion in goods exports to the United States while benefiting competitors such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and China.

Nageswaran said he would stick to the government’s growth forecast of 6.3-6.8% for the current financial year ended in March 2026, citing April-June-quarter’s expansion of 7.8%, the fastest in over a year.

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