What began with an attack in Pahagam-depth inside the occupied territory of Kashmir-Has since spiraling into a dangerous escalation between South Asia’s two nuclear armed neighbors after India launched unprovoked strikes across several Pakistani cities. While New Delhi Fixates on revenge, analysts claim that its actions stem less from strategic necessity than from reckless political theater and a calculated deflection of guilt.

None of this is a surprise to those who have seen the mercury steadily rise between New Delhi and Islamabad in the better part of eight decades. What many analysts find predictable is India’s reflexive reaction to such events – an instant and unwavering attribution of guilt to Pakistan, typically without providing significant evidence or considering alternative explanations.

However, under the political attitude, the recent attack in Pahaldam reveals the same safety and intelligence years seen in Pulwama six years ago. The assault did not take place in a distant or lawless area, but in a heavily militarized zone, firmly under Indian occupation and surrounded by surveillance. Media reports show that the attackers who operated for a long period reportedly question victims before executing them. If these reports are accurate, attackers showed a remarkable confidence and performed their actions without any fear of interruption.

When he wasted no time, the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party’s Government of Government ran its war rhetoric against Islamabad, which revived the same burning calls for Pakistan’s annihilation that followed the Pulwama-attacking language critics arguing more as political theater than credible deterrent.

“India’s approach to Pakistan remains unchanged in both of these events messages is clear-Pakistan is always blamed,” Dr. Claude Rakisits, a Pakinomist-strategic analyst based in Canberra.

He added, “The Indian government, both domestic and in its external messages, portrays Pakistan as episent to terrorism. To the International Society-American, allies, UN-Siger De-Pakistan is Terror-Central. They did it in 2019, now again in 2025.”

Even in this recent attack, Rakisits noted, India has not provided any significant evidence connecting Pakistan with the incident. “But that did not prevent them from reciprocating. The consistency lies in the fact that India, India, is quick to place the blame square on Pakistan,” he explained.

When asked why India continues to blame Pakistan, Rakisits said: “The most important motivation is to divert attention from what is really happening in Kashmir. Take the first Balakot strike – what triggered that the recall of Article 370 in August 2019. Things already worsened but both and now is the goal to shift the focus away from Kashmir.”

Rakisits, which has proposed an unattended Kashmir referendum, much to New Delhi’s dismay explained further: “India’s goal is to control international attention away from Kashmir, where political prisoners are locked without trial where there is no free press. All this in the so-called world’s greatest democracy.”

“And let’s not forget the second goal: Distracting the world from India’s policy after 2019 in Kashmir, which does not run out Kashmiri there to dilute the region’s demographics. It’s all part of the same strategy,” he warned.

Narrative control

Since the revocation of Article 370 – India’s constitutional provision, which once gave up Kashmir a measure of autonomy – Prime Minister Narendra Modi has worked to project a picture of order, development and integration in the disputed Himalayan region. His government portrayed the move as a bold step towards bringing democracy and prosperity to the territory, which has long sought independence from India. As Dr. Claude Rakisit’s observing was always promised: “Before he abolished Article 370, Modi and his government laid the basis. They claimed it would bring democracy, development and progress to Kashmir. But it is clear that it has not happened. Few have bought that narrative – instead of India or abroad.

For years, this tale has rested uneasily on top of a region that many human rights groups now describe, as the world’s largest outdoor prison its streets that are monitored, the insist of the dissent and freedom suspended. But the facade of normality crushed with last month’s deadly assault in Pahagam, a picturesque town in the occupied valley. It was the worst such attack in a quarter of a century and exposed not only a deep security course, but also the crispy nature of India’s claims of control.

“This latest attack shows that things are not normal in Kashmir, no matter what ‘normal’ means there,” Rakisits said. “For modi, this is deeply humiliating. It exposes reality. Therefore, he was under pressure to respond – to cover that humiliation.”

Deliberate escalation

For decades, India and Pakistan have complied with an unspoken understanding: While three -day three -seven control line was frequent and to some extent tolerated, the international border remained – especially across Punjab and Sindh – a red line.

“By beating deep into Punjab, India has crossed this threshold,” Rakisits said, adding that Modi’s wounded political pride left him with little room to maneuver.

“The attack on April 22 was a humiliation – the crushed illusion that Kashmir is ‘normal’. He had to answer.

India’s strikes in the early hours of May 7 killed 31 people over Punjab and Pakistan-managed Kashmir, including a three-year-old girl, and wounded 57 others. Since then, a flurry of reports from Pakistan suggests that its forces have shot down 25 Indian drones that break down its airspace. What began with New Delhi’s attack has now brought the region closer to the precipitate of nuclear accident.

Military humiliation

While New Delhi tried to throw his strikes on the Pakistani soil as a strength show after the attack in Pahaldam, the narrative began to rip as events unfolded. For hours, India remained silent over mounting reports from Islamabad that several Indian jets had been closed down. Only later did it confirm the loss of two aircraft – although Pakistan claimed to have shot down five down, where a number is still disputed by New Delhi. Defense analysts claim that, regardless of the exact number, the episode handed out a tactical blow to India and gave Islamabad a symbolic edge in the unfolding narrative of the conflict.

“What happened is almost without faith,” Rakisits said. “It is reported that India has lost between three to five aircraft – possibly including Rafales, among the most advanced and expensive fighter jets in its fleet. For the Indian Air Force, it is nothing less than a debate. It gives birth to a growing perception of operational vulnerability, especially after the loss of a jet in 2019.”

The expert on South Asian geopolitians noted that the implications extend far beyond the subcontinent. “This is exponentially more devastating to Prime Minister Modi. The Quad that includes the United States, Japan, Australia and India – can now question India’s reliability as a military counterbalance to China. After such a notion against a markedly minor opponent, these doubts are not unfounded.”

“India has recognized the loss of several jets – Pakistan, on the other hand, claims not to maintain any loss. With regard to perception and announcement, it is a clear victory for Islamabad,” Rakisits said.

In return vs restraint

From a broader perspective, Pakistan’s latest viewing of Airpower has given India a haunting sense of Déjà vu – evoked the events of 2019 when Islamabad returned a trapped Indian pilot after closing down a jet and seizing the moral high plot. This time, too, India has some loss in the air – allegedly involved some of its most advanced aircraft – in a battle, as analysts say, cut deeper than the battlefield arithmetic. The headlines changed within hours – from “India strikes Pakistan” to “Pakistan Down’s Indian Jets” – a reversal that some experts believe has inflicted the political damage to Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a delicate time.

According to Rakisits, Pakistan is “now ahead in the game” with the most important international players, especially the US and China, which are likely to call for restraint. “If I were general Asim Munir, I would stop now,” he said. “Pakistan appears to be strong and measured. Pushing further risks of losing this benefit and dragging the region into chaos.” But if Islamabad chooses to strike again, the consequences could be serious. “Modi would have no choice but to answer,” warned Rakisits. “And that was when South Asia could find itself in full scale conflict.”