Instability across the border: Pakistan is closely monitoring the situation

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ISLAMABAD:

Islamabad is closely monitoring the situation in Iran and does not want an upheaval in the neighboring country, as any major instability across the border would have far-reaching consequences for Pakistan’s security, economy and regional status.

Islamabad understands that a section of the Iranian population is protesting against inflation, unemployment and the rising cost of living, but there is also a clear concern in Pakistan’s security and diplomatic circles that Iranian dissidents based abroad are actively trying to intensify the unrest and push it in a particular political direction.

“Pakistan is very cautious. This is Iran’s internal matter. However, we are closely monitoring the situation,” an official said, adding that the Pakistani government has no interest in seeing chaos in neighboring Iran.

“Any prolonged instability will spill over into the region and Pakistan would be among the first countries to feel the impact,” the official said, requesting not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.

Reflecting these concerns, Pakistan has issued a travel advisory for Iran and activated contingency planning to assist its nationals should the situation deteriorate further. The advisory came amid reports of violence in several Iranian cities, temporary internet shutdowns and increased security installations.

Pakistan’s ambassador to Iran, Mudassir Tipu, urged the Pakistani nationals to strictly follow the immigration and travel requirements. “All Pakistani nationals traveling to Pakistan from Iran must ensure that they have either a valid visa or exit stamp (Kharooj) on their passport,” he said.

“The students can ensure that they have approval certificates from their universities. Otherwise, the Iranian immigration authorities will not allow them to travel until they have completed the necessary procedures,” the ambassador said in a statement.

He also warned that those traveling by road should reach the border points well before closing times and coordinate their onward journey within Pakistan in advance. “We are always available for any assistance,” the ambassador assured.

The Foreign Office said: “In view of the ongoing situation, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a travel advisory regarding Iran. Our nationals are requested to adhere to the advisory. We will be very grateful for your cooperation and understanding and will do our best to assist you.”

The unrest in Iran has drawn sharp reactions from Washington and Tel Aviv, with both the US and Israel openly backing calls for political change. US President Donald Trump has gone a step further, threatening military action if Iranian security forces kill protesters.

His remarks were met with a strong response from Tehran, with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warning that any attack on Iran would trigger attacks on Israel and US military installations in the region.

Despite the heated rhetoric, analysts caution against jumping to conclusions about regime change. “I have seen four protest movements in Iran in the last three decades and there is no sign yet that the current protests can lead to regime change,” Muhammad Hussain Bakari, an Iran-based international affairs expert, told The Express Pakinomist.

Bakari said the majority of the protesters were peaceful citizens expressing genuine economic grievances. “However, about 10 to 15% are armed and apparently supported by external actors who attack state institutions,” he added, arguing that this factor has complicated the situation and hardened the state’s response.

For Pakistan, the stakes are high. Any prolonged instability in Iran could disrupt cross-border trade, fuel smuggling networks, complicate border management in Balochistan and increase refugee pressure, according to analysts.

A wider regional escalation involving the US or Israel could also place Pakistan in a difficult diplomatic position due to its relations with Iran, the Gulf countries and China. Officials say Islamabad’s priority remains stability next door. “Pakistan has no desire to see Iran weakened or broken,” said one diplomat. “The lesson from the region is clear: chaos does not remain contained within borders.”

As tensions continue to simmer, Pakistan is treading a cautious line, urging its citizens to remain safe, avoid public posturing and quietly hope that Iran’s internal crisis does not escalate into a regional conflagration.

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