Institutional investors may prove to be more resilient bitcoin holders than critics expected, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who says ETF flow data suggests professional investors have largely held onto their positions during the crypto market’s steep decline.
“The best evidence we have is in the ETF market,” Hougan said. “Bitcoin ETFs accumulated about $60 billion in net flows from their launch in January 2024 to October 2025. Since October 2025, prices have fallen 50%, but we’ve seen less than $10 billion in outflows from ETFs.”
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted about $60 billion in net inflows between their launch in January 2024 and October 2025, Hougan told CoinDesk. Since then, the cryptocurrency’s price has fallen about 50%, yet ETFs have seen less than $10 billion in outflows.
“In other words, despite a punishing bear market, professional investors have proven to be ‘diamond hands’ in bitcoin,” he said. Hougan’s Bitwise offers a range of digital asset investment products, including the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB). BITB has just under $3 billion in assets under management. The leading spot bitcoin ETF, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has more than $55 billion in AUM.
Bitcoin remains a ‘non-consensus asset’
Hougan said the data challenges a common criticism that institutional investors, often considered more sensitive to macroeconomic shocks and liquidity cycles, could sell their bitcoin exposure quickly during periods of market stress. But, he added, the opposite dynamic may be at play at the moment.
“Despite its progress in recent years, bitcoin remains a non-consensus asset,” he said. “Institutional investors buying bitcoin today are still sticking their necks out and standing out from their peers.”
This career risk means institutions allocating to bitcoin today have an unusually strong belief in the asset, said the CIO of Bitwise, a San Francisco-based firm with over $15 billion in client assets under management.
This career risk means institutions allocating to bitcoin today have an unusually strong belief in the asset, said the CIO of Bitwise, a San Francisco-based firm with over $15 billion in client assets under management.
“As a result, the institutional investors who decide to allocate have very high conviction,” Hougan said. “They’re not 51% convinced that bitcoin is a good idea; they’re 80% or 90% convinced. Otherwise, they wouldn’t take the risk.”
Because of these dynamics, he said he believes institutional capital can remain “very sticky” even during volatile market cycles “for the foreseeable future.”
The $1 Million BTC Question
Hougan said the behavior of institutional investors during downturns bolsters his long-term $1 million bitcoin outlook, which he doubled down on in the interview.
“The wildest thing about my $1 million prediction is that it’s not wild at all,” Hougan said. “All you need for bitcoin to reach $1 million is for the global store of value market to continue to grow as it has for the past 20 years, and for bitcoin to become a smaller but significant part of that market.”
For Hougan, the resilience of institutional investors through volatile market cycles is part of the broader maturing process.
“It just needs what has happened in the last 10-20 years to continue to happen in the next 10 years and we will get there,” he said.
