Glassnode data shows that bitcoin’s “death cross,” a technical analysis term that can indicate a bearish signal, is imminent, but with a catch.
Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average of $110,669 is now on the verge of slipping below the 200-day moving average of $110,459, potentially triggering the death cross. This crossover is widely seen in technical analysis as a bearish signal because it reflects weakened short-term momentum relative to the longer trend.
However, this can also act as a possible positive signal.
Bitcoin is currently down about 25% from its October high of around $126,000, and this correction has been ongoing for about 41 days. Despite the death cross’s reputation, this would be the fourth occurrence of the death cross since the cycle started back in 2023, and each previous occurrence has aligned with a major local low.
In September 2023, bitcoin bottomed near $25,000, in August 2024, during the yen carry trade settlement, it found support around $49,000, and then in April 2025, amid uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff policy, BTC bottomed below $75,000.
In the current setup, bitcoin has fallen to $94,000, and in all four previous instances, the market was at its low just before the death cross formed, raising the question of whether the same pattern could unfold again.
Is this time different?
This current downturn is less severe than the April correction, when bitcoin fell below $75,000 during the tariff-related turmoil.
The April correction was both deeper and longer than the current correction, with bitcoin falling about 30% from its peak in January near $109,000 and spending about 79 days in a lower trend before bottoming out in the first week of April. With the current sale at 25% and 41 days, there may still be the possibility of further downside.
But the broader environment now includes the end of the US government shutdown on November 12. The closest comparison is the 2019 shutdown, when bitcoin fell more than 9% five days after the government reopened on January 25, 2019.
It took until February 9, 2019 for bitcoin to recover, about two weeks.
This time, bitcoin has already fallen as much as 10% since the reopening. The question now is whether the same pattern will play out again.
