For US President Donald Trump, few goals on the world scene have been more explicit – he won’t pull the country into another “Forever War.”
Still, Israel’s massive strikes on Iran will test this promise like never before, which potentially creates a showdown with his base as Trump decides how much support the United States will offer.
Trump had publicly called for Israel not to strike when he sought a negotiated solution, and his preying envoy Steve Witkoff was scheduled to meet Iranian officials for the sixth time on Sunday.
Trump, who previously warned that an attack would cause “massive conflict”, subsequently praised Israeli strikes as “excellent.”
He boasted that Israel had “the best and most deadly military equipment all over the world” thanks to the United States – and planned several strikes unless Iran agreed on an agreement.
State Secretary Marco Rubio insisted that the United States was not involved in the strikes and warned Iran not to retaliate against the thousands of us troops stationed in the nearby Arab countries.
However, an American official confirmed that the United States helped Israel shoot retaliatory missiles fired Friday by Iran.
“The United States has calculated that it could help Israel and that the Iranians will obviously be aware of this, but at the end of the day, at least at the public level, the United States remains out,” said Alex Vatanka, founder of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
The hope is that “Iranians will perform a quick cost/benefit analysis and decide that it is not worth the fight,” Vatanka said.
He said Iranian leaders are now focused on staying alive, but could decide either to swallow a tough agreement or further internationalize the conflict by causing chaos in the oil-rich Gulf, potentially sending oil prices rising and pushing Trump.
‘America First Base Skeptical’
Most important legislators in Trump’s Republican Party were quickly behind Israel, whose Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a hero to many in the United States and has long called Iran an existential threat.
But Trump’s populist “America First” base has been skeptical.
Tucker Carlson, the prominent media commentator, who advised Trump against an American strike on Iran in the first period, has called fears that Tehran is building an atomic bomb -over, and said neither Iran nor Ukraine guarantee US military resources.
Carlson wrote on X after the Israeli strike that there was a gap in Trump’s orbit between “those who randomly encourage violence, and those who seek to prevent it – between warmer and peace creators.”
Trump has brought pronounced non-interventionists directly into his administration.
In an unusual political video this week, Trump’s director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, warned after a visit to Hiroshima that “Warmongers” put the world at risk of nuclear disaster.
In a speech in Riyadh last month, Trump condemned decades of American interventionism in the Middle East and said, “My greatest hope is to be a peace champion and to be an association. I don’t like war”.
Supports to Israel
Daniel Shapiro, who served as US ambassador to Israel under former President Barack Obama, said it would have been certain that the United States would support Israeli’s defense against Iranian retribution.
But Trump will face a tougher decision on “whether to use the unique capabilities of the United States to destroy Tehran’s underground nuclear facilities and prevent an Iranian nuclear weapon,” Shapiro said, now on the Atlantic Council.
“The decision will divide his advisers and political base in the midst of accusations and perhaps his own concerns that Netanyahu is trying to pull him into war.”
Legislators of the rival Democratic Party revise widely Revile Netanyahu, including over Israel’s bloody offensive in Gaza.
“This attack by Netanyahu is pure sabotage,” said Democratic representative Joaquin Castro.
“What does ‘America first’ even mean if Trump allows Netanyahu to pull the country into a war that Americans don’t want?” He wrote on social media.
Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Progressive Center for International Policy, said China – identified by Trump as the top threat – could seize the moment, perhaps by moving on with Taiwan as it sees the United States as even more distracted.
“Even without direct involvement, Washington is now facing the prospect of unlimited delivery, intelligence and diplomatic support for Israel, just as the war in Ukraine is intensified and global crises are multiplied.
“Warrior is easy to ignite, but once detached, they tend to spiral beyond control and rarely end up on the conditions of those who start them,” Toossi added.
