Just when it looked like yen -fright could ease, Japan has reported an uptick in core inflation.
Data released early Friday showed Japan’s core inflation striping prices of fresh food rose 3%years to year in February, moderating from January 3.2%, but beating the consensus forecast for 2.9%. The heading Consumer Price Index eased to 3.7% from 4%.
Overall, both indexes remained well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target, which validated central bank manager Haruhiko Kuroda’s victory declaration over decades of deflation. Especially since November, Japan’s headline inflation has been running hotter than the US – almost 100 base points (BPS) higher now.
The sticky inflation plus wage increases from the Shunto salary negotiations have strengthened calls for Boj interest rates. In other words, a potential Yen -rally that is known for destabilizing risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, is back on the table.
From writing, the dollar-yen (USD/JPY) couple traded at 149.22, after jumping nearly 300 pips in a sign of renewed yen weakness since March 11, according to data source trading.
That said, it supports narrowing or falling 10-year bond yield. Japanese yields have risen over the curve and offering bullish signals to yen. From writing, Japan’s 10-year bond yielded over 1.5%, and the 30-year-old dividend was over 2.5%, both for several decades.
A renewed yen strength could translate into risk aversion that we saw last August.