The downturn in the crypto market has been particularly hard on leading U.S. exchange Coinbase ( COIN ), which has seen its stock plunge more than 50% since bitcoin’s early October record above $126,000, including a 27% drop in 2026 alone.
In an effort to make up for the rapid decline, JPMorgan’s Ken Worthington lowered his price target on COIN to $290 from $399 ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report after the close on Thursday.
Worthington remains bullish on the stock, and his reduced target still suggests 75% upside from COIN’s current price of $1655.
Worthington projects adjusted EBITDA of $734 million, down from $801 million in the third quarter. That would mark a sharp decline from previous quarters, primarily driven by lower trading volumes, weaker crypto prices and slower growth in USDC stablecoin balances, he said.
Worthington estimates spot crypto trading volume at $263 billion for the quarter. He also pointed to lower USDC in circulation and modeled stablecoin-related revenues of $312 million. Those headwinds were partially offset by a full quarter contribution from Deribit, the crypto derivatives exchange Coinbase acquired in August.
Including Deribit, JPMorgan models total transaction revenue of $1.06 billion, with Deribit contributing about $117 million on an estimated $586 billion in trading volume. In the previous quarter, the exchange reported $1 billion in transaction revenue.
On the subscription and services side, the bank expects revenue of $670 million, below Coinbase’s previous guidance range of $710 million to $790 million, reflecting softer crypto prices, lower stake yields and slower USDC growth. Worthington also expects operating expenses to come in below guidance as the company curbs costs.
Other sellers weigh in
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish said his estimates are about 10% below consensus on adjusted EBITDA, driven by weaker retail and blockchain rewards revenue. “We are notably lower on retail revenue based on Robinhood read-throughs and blockchain reward revenue,” Budish wrote, adding that consensus estimates may not yet fully reflect publicly available volume data.
Barclays estimates Coinbase exchange volume at around $261 billion in the quarter. He said Robinhood’s ( HOOD ) reported retail crypto volumes, which have historically tracked closely with Coinbase’s, fell about 15% quarter over quarter.
Compass Point struck a more bearish tone. Analyst Ed Engel said he is negative on the stock in earnings and expects disappointment in the subscription and services segment. “While investors are placing a premium multiple on COIN’s S&S segment, we expect 4Q results to confirm that overall revenue remains tied to overall crypto prices,” Engel wrote. He also expects January revenue to reflect what he described as Coinbase’s weakest retail engagement since the third quarter of 2024.
Beyond the headlines, investors will likely focus on commentary on trading activity early in 2026, the sustainability of USDC-related revenues, and whether recent initiatives such as Deribit and Coinbase’s futures business can meaningfully offset volatility in spot crypto markets.
