Despite its longstanding reputation as “digital gold,” bitcoin has diverged sharply from traditional safe havens like gold and silver, but that may not be a bad thing for the digital asset’s future, according to JPMorgan analysts.
Gold is up more than 60% in 2025 on sustained central bank purchases and flight-to-safety demand, while bitcoin has struggled into 2026, with repeated monthly declines and underperforming large risk assets. JPMorgan’s report suggests that this widening gap reflects bitcoin’s fading appeal as a hedge against market turmoil.
Digital assets “came under further pressure over the past week as risk assets and technology in particular came under pressure and as gold and silver, the other perceived hedges against a catastrophic scenario, saw a sharp correction,” wrote analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.
That selloff has also spilled over into spot bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), signaling broad negative sentiment among institutional and retail investors, according to JPMorgan analysts. The bearish sentiment has also affected stablecoin supply, which has declined, the note said.
‘Catastrophic scenarios’
However, JPMorgan still sees a long-term case for bitcoin.
The report said gold has outperformed bitcoin since last October, but with significantly higher volatility, making bitcoin “even more attractive compared to gold.”
In theory, if bitcoin were to match the recent volatility seen in gold, the price of the digital asset would have to rise to close to $266,000 to match the investments being made in gold, which analysts agree is unlikely. What this low volatility does for bitcoin is that it highlights bitcoin’s future potential as a safe haven.
“This $266k volatility-adjusted comparison to gold is, in our view, an unrealistic target for this year, but it shows the long-term upside potential once the negative sentiment reverses and bitcoin is once again seen as attractive to gold as a potential hedge against a catastrophic scenario,” the analysts wrote.
Read more: Bitcoin Nears Pre-Election Floor as ETF Flows Stall, Citi Says
