If someone told you that stock market investors are reading their beloved possessions, you will probably interpret it as a sign of an impending market downturn.
However, the narrative differs in the crypto market, where such sales indicate bullishness, according to analysts observing historical trends in the supply of long -term investors or wallets holding coins for at least 155 days or over five months.
“Based on our analysis, sharp decreases in long-term holder supply (purple line) often coincide with strong Bitcoin events (white line), as seen in 1st. Quarter, Bitcoin remains in danger of a short clamp to the head,” said Markus Thielen, Founder of 10x Research, in a report shared with Coindesk.
The total supply contained by these wallets has dropped to approx. 13 million BTC. According to the analysis company Glassnode, over 1 million BTC has changed hands below the recent price increase over $ 100,000, when short -term dealers snapped the long -term proprietor distribution.
“Under the recent rally over $ 100K, 1.1 million BTC has transferred from long -term to short -term holders, representing an impressive influx of demand to absorb this delivery at prices over $ 90,000,” Glassnode said in its weekly report.
Note, however, that the pace in which long -term holders sell has subsided. This slowdown is shown in the monthly change rate in the long term to short -term holder supply conditions. It is no longer as harmful as it was earlier this month, indicating a more measured approach to the sale of long -term owners.
Exchange balance slides
The number of BTCs held in wallets tied to centralized exchanges has dropped to 2.7 million BTC from over three million for approx. Six months ago, according to Glassnode.
Exodus of BTC from exchanges, resulting in reduced accessibility of coins for fast sales, is widely considered a bullish indicator. However, the dynamics have changed since the debut of Spot -Tfs in the US a year ago.
“While many people interpret this as a form of supply shock caused by a lot of coins that are withdrawn by individual investors – potentially creating the upward price – we believe that the majority of this fall originated from coins that switch to ETF -cartoon books, Manager is administered by depotmen like Coinbase, “Glassnode said.
In other words, these coins have ended up in a ETF, an alternative investment vehicle that is liquid or active and can be purchased and sold as quickly as actual coins.
Per Glassnode is the exchange balance adjusted for coins moved to alternative vehicles, over 3 million BTC.
