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March Madness brackets consume households across America, but with the expanded legalization of sports betting, more and more bets are being placed on the tournament games.
The tournament is the only one to rival the Super Bowl in terms of gambling, with 32 games played on the field, each watched by millions across the country.
Bracketing upsets is stressful enough—you know they’re going to happen, but you just don’t know which ones. But picking them all at a sportsbook can actually be an advantage.
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General overview of the second round of the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament tip between the New Mexico Lobos and the Michigan State Spartans at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse on March 23, 2025 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Jason Mowry/Getty Images)
Since 2008, 12-seeds are 28-40 against No. 5 seeds — that .410 winning percentage certainly isn’t bad for teams that are usually underdogs by near double digits. Combine that with No. 11 seeds going nearly .500 (37-39) in the first round since 2006, and bettors may have cashed in even if their brackets were busted.
“That’s where you take pictures and that’s where you know the upsets have occurred,” Johnny Avello, an oddsmaker at DraftKings, told Pakinomist Digital in a recent interview.
Since 2019, 10-seeds are also 10-13 against 7-seeds, with one 7-seed advancing due to COVID-19 in 2021. In the last nine tournaments dating back to 2016, No. 9 seeds are 22-14 against No. 8 seeds, with just twice as many of the 8 games.
Five players have been suspended this offseason for gambling, with a sixth on the way. (Budrul Chukrut/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
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Because of those trends, Avello has seen several lower seeds shrink their point spreads, including No. 11 South Florida vs. No. 6 Louisville (7- to 5-point underdogs) and No. 12 High Point vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (12.5 to 9.5). No. 12 Akron has also gone from 9.5 point underdogs to 7.5 against No. 5 Texas Tech.
Now, while some might want to go big or go home with some No. 13-16 seeds (kudos to those who bet on UMBC in 2018 and Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023), that might not be wise. In fact, Avello said many players go heavy on the favorites in these matchups.
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Avello opened No. 2 Purdue (which lost to the aforementioned FDU) as 23-point favorites against Queens, but that spread is now up to 25. No. 2 Iowa State went from 23.5- to 25.5-point favorites against No. 15 Tennessee State, while No. 3 Gonzaga State also saw its No. 3 Gonzaga go 8 to 5. 5/20.
Texas Tech remains the slight five-seed favorite, but Vanderbilt and St. John’s is -11.5 against McNeese State and Northern Iowa, respectively. For context, the biggest spread in a 5-12 matchup last year was Clemson at 7.5 against McNeese, who pulled off the upset. Two other five-seeds sat at -2.5.
A general view of the March Madness logo at center court at the Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena. (Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports)
And for what it’s worth, two No. 13 seeds were single-digit favorites last year, but this year they’re all favored to win by double digits.
