Bitcoin (BTC) has changed a lot in four years and distanced itself from shady centralized units such as FTX and emerges as Plat du Jour among institutional investors. However, this month’s drive back to six-figures in the middle of refrigerated tensions presents a series of warning signs that seem awkwardly similar to the 2021 cycle height.

By 2021, Bitcoin made a historic record high in April of $ 65,000, coincident with a flurry of activity from Michael Saylor’s (then -named) Microstratey and IPO of Coinbase (Coin). The excitement was activated by sharp dealers who shortened the big news and rode BTC down to a possible $ 28,000 bottom just two months later.

As the whole industry began to prepare for a sustained bear market or even the end of Bitcoin (remember the Chinese mining), BTC turned Hale and began a demonstration that did not stop for four months. This relentless wave to the upside resulted in a new record height of $ 69,000, despite the fact that all metric metrics point to a bearish result.

Ominous, the current price action this time is accompanied by the same on-chain measurements that tell a similar story of a potential double top.

A deeper dive

The first of these measurements is weekly RSI, which exhibits three strikes of bearish divergence from March 2024, December 2024 and May 2025. RSI is an indicator that compares average winnings with average losses over a fixed period to measure potentially overbought or oversold conditions. Bearish divergence is where RSI tends to be downward, while the price tends to the head.

This combined with trading volumes that are lower compared to the first move above $ 100,000 suggests that the momentum for this turn has been declining. Volumes are down across both crypto and institutional venues, with volume on CME BTC futures that do not exceed 35,000 contracts in three of the previous four weeks. The first step saw that volumes regularly exceed 65,000 contracts and hit more than 85,000 on three occasions. A contract of CME is worth 5 Bitcoin ($ 514,000).

As in 2021, open interest is also divergent from the price action, which is currently open interest 13% lower than the initial drive to $ 109K in January, while the price is only 5.8% lower. Four years ago, when Bitcoin hit $ 69,000, open interest was 15.6% lower than the original $ 65,000 high despite the fact that the price was 6.6% higher.

What does that mean?

The similarities to 2021 are clear, but it is worth noting that the crypto market structure is completely different than four years ago. Most often thanks to Michael Saylor’s strategy and a growing number of businesses copycats that increase BTC acquisitions at all costs, the presence of institutional interest is much higher in this cycle. There is also the element of SPOT Bitcoin ETFs that allow intuitional investors and businesses to acquire BTC in a traditionally regulated place.

As learned in 2021, Metrics On-Chain can be an inaccurate target for the prognosis preaching. It is possible that BTC is breaking a new record high after Trump inevitably reveals details of an American Bitcoin Ministry of Finance, but it could also become a “selling news event” where traders are trying to exploit emotional purchases from uninformed retail investors.

What the indicators suggest is that although a new record high could be formed as in 2021, the momentum of this trait is declining, and analysts who, with boldness, require $ 150,000 or even $ 200,000 price targets could be in for a rude awakening when the sale really begins. Bitcoin entered more than a year of bear market at the end of 2021, resulting in significant redundancies throughout the industry and the implosion of several trading companies, centralized lending companies and defi-protocols.

This time, the market has several other elements to consider whether prices are starting to tumble. In particular, Mstr’s geared BTC position, the new BTC Defi Industry, which has $ 6.3 Billon in total value locked (tvl), and billions of foamy dollars jumping around the MEMECOIN -Ecosystem, which is known for disproportionate to contract in times of market pressure