- Democrats criticize Trump for waging “electoral warfare.”
- Three US troops killed, several injured so far.
- Trump calls on Iranians to “take back” their country.
Trump administration officials acknowledged in a closed-door meeting with congressional staff on Sunday that there was no intelligence to suggest Iran planned to attack U.S. forces first, two people familiar with the matter said.
The United States and Israel launched their most ambitious attack on Iran in decades on Saturday, martyring Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sinking Iranian warships and hitting more than 1,000 targets so far, officials said.
But Sunday’s remarks to Congress appeared to undercut one of the key pro-war arguments made by senior administration officials.
They told reporters the day before that President Donald Trump decided to launch the strikes in part because of indicators that Iranians could attack US forces in the Middle East “perhaps pre-emptively”.
Trump, one of the officials said, would not “sit back and allow American forces in the region to absorb attacks.”
Pentagon briefings lasted over 90 minutes
Pentagon officials briefed Democratic and Republican staffers on several national security committees in both the Senate and the House of Representatives for more than 90 minutes about the U.S. strike in Iran, White House spokesman Dylan Johnson said earlier.
In the briefings, administration officials stressed that Iran’s ballistic missiles and proxy forces in the region posed an imminent threat to American interests, but there was no intelligence that Tehran had attacked American forces first, the two sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Reuters.
Trump said the attack, which is expected to last several weeks, was aimed at ensuring Iran could not have a nuclear weapon, curb its missile program and eliminate threats to the United States and its allies.
He has called on Iranians to rise up and overthrow the government.
Democrats criticize ‘election war’
Still, Democrats have accused Trump of waging an electoral war and have taken aim at his arguments for abandoning peace talks, which mediator Oman said still held promise.
Trump has argued, without providing evidence, that Iran was on its way to soon securing the ability to strike the United States with a ballistic missile.
His missile claim was not supported by US intelligence reports and appeared to be exaggerated, sources familiar with the reports said. Reuters.
Questions about the justification for the war come as the US military on Sunday revealed the first US casualties in the conflict.
Skepticism towards regime change
Following the martyrdom of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, many senior US officials remain skeptical that the US and Israeli military operation against the Islamic Republic will lead to regime change in the short term.
Before and after the start of the attack, US officials, including US President Trump, had suggested that overthrowing the country’s repressive system of government was one of several US goals, in addition to crippling Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs.
“I urge all Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment … and take back your country,” Trump said Sunday in a video posted on Truth Social.
But three U.S. officials familiar with U.S. intelligence said there is serious skepticism that Iran’s battered opposition can topple the theocratic, authoritarian system of government that has been in place since 1979.
No official consulted by Reuters completely ruled out the fall of Iran’s government, which is currently reeling from the loss of key personnel from ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes and is deeply unpopular after a January round of extraordinarily violent repression.
But that is far from likely or even likely in the near term, they said.
Reuters previously reported that Central Intelligence Agency assessments presented to the White House in the weeks before the attack in Iran concluded that if Khamenei were killed, he could be replaced by hardliners from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or equally hardline clerics, two sources said.
A US official with knowledge of internal White House discussions said IRGC officials are unlikely to surrender voluntarily, in part because they have benefited from a large patronage network designed to maintain internal loyalty.
The CIA assessments followed at least one report by a separate US intelligence agency, which noted that there had been no IRGC defectors during a massive round of anti-government protests in January that were met with brutal force by Iranian security forces.
Such defections would likely be a prerequisite for any successful revolution, according to three additional sources. Those sources asked that the specific intelligence agency not be named.
All the sources Reuters spoke to for this story requested anonymity to discuss intelligence assessments.
Trump himself said on Sunday that he planned to reopen communications with Iran and suggested that Washington does not see the government going anywhere, at least in the immediate term.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment, while the CIA declined to comment.
Lots of debate, less consensus
On Sunday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said a leadership council consisting of himself, the head of the judiciary and a member of the powerful Guardian Council had temporarily assumed the duties of supreme leader.
Security chief Ali Larijani accused the United States and Israel of trying to loot and disintegrate Iran and warned “secessionist groups” of a harsh response if they attempted any action, state television said Sunday, after the two countries launched a wave of airstrikes against Iran, which included the bombing of a girl’s elementary school. Reuters could not independently confirm the state media reports.
US intelligence discussions about the implications of a possible Khamenei assassination have not been limited to whether it could lead to a change in government leadership.
Two of the U.S. officials said since January there had been considerable debate — but no consensus — among officials from various agencies about the extent to which Khamenei’s assassination would lead to a significant shift in the way Iran approached negotiations with the U.S. over its nuclear program.
U.S. officials have also discussed the extent to which Khamenei’s death or ouster would deter the country from rebuilding its missile or nuclear facilities and capabilities, said those officials, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive internal conversations.
After the protests in January, Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy and a key ally, spoke several times with Iranian opposition figure Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, and raised questions about the extent to which the administration would support his repayment if Iran’s government falls, two officials said.
But in recent weeks, senior U.S. officials have grown increasingly pessimistic that any opposition figure backed by Washington would realistically be able to control the country, those officials added.
“Ultimately, when the American and Israeli attacks stop, if the Iranian people come out, their success in promoting the end of the regime will depend on the congregation siding with them or joining them,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior U.S. intelligence official who is now with the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.
“Otherwise, the remnants of the regime, those with the weapons, will probably use them to keep power.”
Three US troops killed
Three US troops were killed and five seriously wounded, US Central Command said on Sunday, adding that several other US troops suffered minor shrapnel and concussions.
US aircraft and warships have struck more than 1,000 Iranian targets since Trump ordered the start of major combat operations, the military said.
The strikes include B-2 stealth bombers dropping 2,000 lb (900 kg) bombs on hardened, underground Iranian missile facilities.
ONE Reuters/Ipsos poll on Sunday showed that 27% of Americans approved of the strikes, while 43% disapproved and 29% were unsure.
