Daytime temperatures are 3-5°C above normal, while nighttime temperatures were 1-3.5°C above the climatological average for 1981-2010
Northern Pakistan is experiencing below-average rainfall and snowfall this winter, raising concerns over accelerated glacier melt and potential Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said in a statement on Monday.
According to the PMD, reduced rainfall and prolonged clear sky conditions have contributed to unusually stable atmospheric patterns and significantly elevated temperatures over Gilgit-Baltistan during the first three weeks of February.
Daytime temperatures were recorded 3–5°C above normal, while nighttime temperatures remained 1–3.5°C above the 1981–2010 climatological average. Gilgit and Bunji have experienced the highest daytime warming, with Chilas and Bunji also showing notable increases in minimum temperatures, reducing overnight refreezing and accelerating snow and glacier melt in mid- to lower-elevation regions, the statement added.
“Reduced nighttime cooling further increases meltwater runoff to glacial lakes. Rapid melt increases water accumulation in both moraine and glacier-dammed lakes, increasing the likelihood of GLOF events in downstream valleys,” PMD reported.
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The department’s outlook for February to April 2026 predicts a high probability of above-normal temperatures in northern Pakistan, including Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir. The most vulnerable areas include Gilgit, Ghizar, Hunza, Bunji, Chilas and Astore.
Average temperature anomalies recorded between February 1 and 22 show daytime temperatures rising to 4.7 °C above normal in Gilgit, while nighttime anomalies reached 3.4 °C in Chilas.
The PMD said it is closely monitoring temperature trends, glacier melt conditions and hydrometeorological parameters and will issue timely advice to authorities and communities.
