OBJECTIVES:
Pakistan’s rooftop solar generation will exceed daytime power demand on parts of the national grid next year, a senior official told Reuters, marking a significant shift driven by a record boom in solar installations and a rapid decline in grid usage.
The growth has lowered emissions and reduced electricity bills for some consumers, but it has also increased the financial burden on debt-ridden power companies. Prolonged declines in grid-based demand have weakened revenue at a time when the sector is already struggling with structural losses.
On the sidelines of the COP30 climate conference in Brazil, Aisha Moriani, secretary of the climate ministry, said the country would experience “negative grid-connected demand during certain daytime hours because the behind-the-meter sun completely offsets grid consumption”.
While regions in Europe and Australia occasionally record negative electricity prices due to solar oversupply, Pakistan would become one of the first major emerging markets where rooftop generation exceeds grid-connected demand for extended periods in key industrial areas.
Lahore, which has some of Pakistan’s highest rooftop solar penetration, is expected to be the first major city to see negative daytime demand. Faisalabad and Sialkot, where industrial zones have rapidly adopted solar panels, are likely to follow suit, Moriani said.
Power shortages and repeated tariff hikes have prompted many of Pakistan’s 250 million people to turn to solar energy. The country has become the world’s third largest importer of solar panels, and solar energy’s share of its electricity mix now exceeds that of neighboring China.
Moriani, Pakistan’s lead negotiator at COP30, said negative demand events would become more frequent during bright summer afternoons, industrial holidays and days with moderate temperatures, when solar generation remains high but cooling demand remains low.
She added that Pakistan’s core challenge was not the pace of sustained growth, but the speed at which the grid, regulatory structures and market design could adapt. The government is planning new tariffs for large solar users and revised fee structures to ensure that companies with rooftop systems contribute to the costs of maintaining the grid.
Grid-connected electricity demand in Pakistan is expected to grow 3-4% this year, slower than long-term averages. Consumption may rise more sharply next year, but the increase may be tempered by continued growth in rooftop solar, Moriani said.
The sharp increase in the use of solar energy has also influenced Pakistan’s liquefied natural gas strategy. Moriani said the country had begun renegotiating LNG contracts with top supplier Qatar and canceling cargoes previously supplied by Italy’s Eni to seek more flexible delivery schedules and lower prices.
Although no formal negotiations took place with Qatar at COP30, Moriani said the conference created “diplomatic space for engagement with energy ministers and commercial representatives”.
She added that Pakistan’s priority was to align gas import plans with fiscal constraints, demand forecasts and seasonal trends. “Pakistan seeks stability and affordability, not expansion of LNG dependence,” she said.
