Massive floods in Pakistan have hit both the rural heart and industrial centers for the first time in decades, which has caused billions of dollars in damage while the strained food supplies, exports and a fragile economic recovery.
The government had been optimistic around 2026, pencil in 4.2% growth on the back of a rebound in agriculture and manufacture after the economy was stabilized under an international monetary fund of $ 7 billion.
Instead, since the end of June, record monitoring has been reinforced by dam releases from India, submerged large cuts of Punjab and Sindh, the two most populous and economically vital provinces.
While Waters has not yet disappeared in many districts, officials and analysts warn that hit could be deeper than in 2022, as a third of the country was under water due to double shock to agriculture and manufacture.
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Out on the plains, satellite images have tracked the scale. A report from the agricultural monitoring initiative GEOGLAM estimates at least 220,000 ha of rice fields flooded between August 1 and September 16.
In Punjab, Pakistan’s rice, cotton and corn engine, 1.8 million Acres agricultural land has been flooded, according to Provincial Disaster Management Agency.
“About 50% of rice, 60% of cotton and corn crops have been damaged,” said Khalid Bath, president of the Pakistan Farmers Association. He said losses could exceed 2.5 million Acres, worth up to a Billion Rupier ($ 3.53 billion).
“This is in contrast to something we have seen in recent decades,” said Iqrar Ahmad Khan, former rector of the University of Agriculture Faisalabad.
He estimates that at least one tenth of the country’s crops are destroyed, with vegetable losses on top of 90% in some districts.
The timing is dangerous: Pakistan is about to sow wheat, the crop, which gives almost half of the country’s caloric intake. National reserves remain comfortable after a strong harvest from 2024, according to crop monitor, but the window is in danger in fields that are still smooth with silt and mud.
“Food security is coming, not just higher prices,” Khan warned.
Underplaying of risks
Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal acknowledged that the floods would “sit back” GDP growth and said that a clearer damage would be ready in about two weeks.
Pakistan’s central bank said the flood would cause a “temporary, yet significant supply sink,” and it set growth near the lower end of its range of 3.25-4.25%.
It argued that the shock would be less serious than the $ 30 billion disaster in 2022, with stronger Forex reserves and lower interest rates offering some resilience.
Read more: Floods for famine: How 2025 could trigger financial crisis
But the prices for wheat, sugar, onions and tomatoes have sprung and pushes a sensitive price index to a 26 -month height.
The IMF resident representative Mahir Binici said that an upcoming review of the expanded fund facility will assess whether the financial year and emergency regulations from 2026 can meet the country’s needs. Iqbal urged the fund to “help us mitigate the damage”.
Some economists say decision makers are subject to the risk.
“The floods will increase the deficit in ongoing account by $ 7 billion. They are worse than the previous floods,” said former Finance Minister Hafeez Pasha.
Count loss
In industrial cities such as Sialkot – a hub for textiles, sporting products and surgical equipment that supports Pakistan’s exports – several workshops were marooned.
Hit to agriculture is also a blow for the producers. Industrialists say cotton deficiencies will mug into the textile sector, the country’s top currency, while rice exporters warn Pakistan risk losing competitiveness to India as prices rise.
“We had 400 hectares of cotton, but only 90 is back,” farmer Rab Nawaz said near the historic city of Multan.
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At least 1,006 people have been killed since June 26, National Disaster Management Authority said, while over 2.5 million people have been evacuated in Punjab and Sindh.
In the provincial capital of Lahore, home and small businesses were cleansed. Mohammad Arif, a 50 -year -old rickshaw driver and father of five, said he moved his vehicle to higher land when his home was flooded.
“We’ve been on the roads for three days,” he said.
