For the current financial year, goods exports are estimated at DKK 35.28 billion. USD, and the service export project 8.38 billion.
The federal government has set ambitious economic targets for the next three years, aiming to raise the GDP growth rate to between 4.2% and 5.7%. Other targets include increasing the size of the national economy to Rs162.513 billion, increasing exports by more than $10 billion and increasing remittances to a record $44.82 billion.
According to the three-year macroeconomic and fiscal policy framework issued by the Ministry of Finance, significant growth in exports, remittances, tax revenues and the overall size of the economy is expected.
The report predicts that Pakistan’s exports will increase from $44.83 billion to $55 billion over the next three years – an increase of more than $10 billion. Exports of goods are expected to reach $42.69 billion, while exports of services, including information technology, are estimated at $12.24 billion.
Read: Pakistan is likely to get $1.2 billion. IMF tranche
For the current fiscal year, merchandise exports are estimated at $35.28 billion, with service exports estimated at $8.38 billion. Imports are expected to increase by $14.5 billion to reach $79.71 billion. Remittances are expected to hit a three-year record $44.82 billion, compared to $39.43 billion expected in the current fiscal year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Pakistan’s economic growth rate of 3.6% for the current financial year.
Against the forecast of 3.6% economic growth, sources have said that during last week’s endless discussions, IMF staff had forecast growth of 3% to 3.5%. They said the IMF’s view was that the recent floods have weighed on the economic outlook, especially for the agriculture sector given the damage to major Kharif crops.
Read more: IMF projects Pakistan’s growth at 3.6%
The Pakistani government has already revised down its ambitious target of 4.2% to 3.5%, while the World Bank has made a forecast of 2.6% for the same reason.
The sources said that even in the medium term, the IMF did not expect more than a 4.5% economic growth rate for Pakistan, which also depends on support from any meaningful increase in exports and investment.
The IMF’s executive board is expected to approve the third installment of DKK 1 billion. USD to Pakistan under the Enhanced Fund Facility (EFF) program during its meeting scheduled for December.
The fund is also likely to provide $200 million in climate finance, which will be made available through the Climate Resilience Financing mechanism.
The staff-level agreement between Pakistan and the IMF was finalized on 15 October. Officials from the Ministry of Finance are optimistic that the next installment under the ongoing loan program will be approved.
