Prediction markets signalize the skepticism that Donald Trump will be able to bend the Federal Reserve to his will this year, even when the US president moves to shoot a bold governor of what he thinks is just cause.
At the polymemarket, Bettor set the chance that Jerome Powell was forced out as the Fed Chairman by 2025 at only 10%, suggesting that investors do not believe that Trump can override the central bank’s independence before Powell’s period expires in May 2026.
Trump’s Push to four Fed Governor Lisa Cook tells another story. He wants her to be removed over allegations of mortgage fraud per. Letter sent on Truth Social, making her the first sitting governor ever targeted by a presidential dismissal.
However, Cook has refused to resign and argue that “for cause” remover should apply to mismatch in office, not private economic environment that took place her appointment.
Markets prices a 27% chance of Cook’s radiance by December 31, indicating a certain risk of legal or political fallout, but still a strong expectation she survives the challenge.
History shows that former presidents have also been pushing bold, with the Cato Institute pointed out in a piece in October 2024 that it is more common than some would lead you to believe.
Harry Truman pushed President Thomas McCabe out in 1951 to secure the funding of wartime debt, Lyndon Johnson famous famous William Mcchesney Martin on his Texas ranch to raise the rates during the Vietnam War, and Richard Nixon leaned strongly on Arthur Burns in the early 1970s a campaign economy, which later Bunde, which later Bunde, which later Bunde, which later Bunde, which later Bunde Bunde, Continuous inflation.
A 2013 CATO study by Thomas F. Cargill and Gerald P. O’Riscoll Jr. claims that the Federal Reserve -independence is more myth than reality, noting that both parties have disturbed when politically appropriate.
If Trump were to remove Powell, it would certainly be controversial, but markets may welcome it if seen as clearing the way for easier monetary policy. A fed that is more in line with the White House could reduce the rates faster, weaken the dollar and lift risk assets largely and create a supportive background for Bitcoin .
In addition to the nearest rally, Powell’s firing would emphasize one of Crypto’s core arguments: that Fiat systems are in itself political and exposed to capture while Bitcoin remains outside these pressure.
For Bitcoin, this combination could loosen liquidity conditions plus a reinforced “hard money” narrative be a strong catalyst for adoption.
A change of guard at Fed would of course be a bullish tale for Bitcoin, which is why the market’s reaction to Trump’s movement on Cook reflects a consensus that this is pretty much hot air.
Bitcoin hardly moved on the news, an increase of 0.3% in immediate demand, with the largest digital asset still down to 2.6% a day according to Coindesk market data.
Coindesk 20, an index that tracks the performance of the largest crypto assets, trades below 4,000, down 5.3% with the middle of the day Hong Kong time.
