By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
The Iran war has single-handedly soured the macro environment for risk-takers in the financial markets, and some participants are betting it could end soon.
Onchain data tracked by Polymarket tracker PolymarketHistory shows that 10 wallets sprung to life on Sunday, betting a cumulative $160,000 on a late March truce and seeing a potential payout of over $1,000,000. The wallets have no previous transaction history and were created at the same time, raising suspicions of potential insider positioning on the outcome.
In any case, if the war ends, markets, including cryptocurrencies, may see a relief jump.
For now, however, the conflict is in its fourth week and is keeping valuations under pressure. Bitcoin held below $69,000 at time of writing, maintaining losses from the weekend. Ether fell to $2,030, its sixth drop in seven days. XRP (XRP), solana (SOL), and others were also under pressure, while a few privacy tokens like NIGHT and XMR stood out with gains of over 3% in the past 24 hours.
“The market is trading on one theme above all others: geopolitical inflation. The weekend brought a new phase of escalation, including US pressure on Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and further threats to regional energy infrastructure. That has kept oil risk elevated and left investors pricing in an extended period of tight economic conditions,” said Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, in an email.
“Bitcoin still has the cleanest value-capturing profile in crypto for this band: scarce asset, improved institutional plumbing, and relative flow leadership compared to the rest of the complex,” he said.
However, market trends have yet to confirm this view. US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows for a third straight day on Friday, along with significant selling by large holders or whales.
Ether has also experienced large liquidations. A whale with over 130,000 ETH sold 5,000 ETH ($10.31 million) for $2,063, according to Lookonchain.
In traditional markets, yields on US Treasuries rose to multi-month highs, signaling tighter financial conditions ahead, while futures linked to the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 hit their lowest levels since early November. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- 23 March at 10:00 AM: US construction spending MoM for January estimated 0.1% (Prev 0.3%).
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- March 23: BTCS Inc. (BTCS), post-market, $0.01
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Aave DAO votes to implement Aave V4 with a security-first initial setup, conservative risk parameters and a modular hub and spoke architecture. Voting ends March 23.
- Floki DAO votes to rank entries from Floki’s third Guerrilla Marketing Contest. Voting ends March 23.
- Unlocks
- The token is launched
- March 23: HTX DAO (HTX) staking is officially launched
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 3.01% as of 16 ET Sunday at $71,044.86 (24 hours: +3.56%)
- ETH is up 5.07% to $2,168.32 (24h: +4.20%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 3.05% to 2,030.41 (24h: 2.56%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 13 bps to 2.83%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0017% (-1.8177% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.45% at 104.30
- Gold futures are down 7.27% at $4,238.30
- Silver futures are down 8.18% at $63.69
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 3.48% to 51,515.49
- The Hang Seng closed down 3.54% to 24,382.47
- The FTSE 100 is down 2.03% to 9,716.51
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 2.01% to 5,390.70
- The DJIA closed Friday down 0.96% at 45,577.47
- The S&P 500 closed up 1.51% at 6,506.48
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 2.01% at 21,647.61
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.69% at 31,317.41
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.15% at 3,150.00
- US 10-year Treasury is up 11 bps to 4.39%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 1.03% to 6,626.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.54% at 24,231
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 1.15% at 46,147
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 58.89% (0.52%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.02989 (-1.24%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 963 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $32.30
- Total Fees: 2.07 BTC / $142,462
- CME Futures open interest: 116,195 BTC
- BTC Priced in Gold: 16 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.58%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows daily swings in bitcoin’s 30-day implied (expected) volatility index, BVIV, since October.
- BVIV has risen to 59% from 53% on Wednesday, and further gains may be on the way.
- This is because the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is well above the 200-day SMA and is heading north. It shows that the short-term trend is upward.
- Increased volatility is usually a feature of a bear market.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Friday at $197.50 (-2.67%), -2.78% at $192 in premarket
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.72 (-1.57%), -3.19% at $20.06
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.46 (-8.24%), -3.07% at $8.20
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.38 (-5.37%), -4.33% at $12.80
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.81 (-4.07%), -2.09% at $15.48
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.40 (-4.37%), -3.19% at $9.10
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $7.38 (-4.53%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $37.68 (-3.63%)
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $126.03 (-1.79%), -4.36% at $120.54
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.97 (-4.12%), -4.40% at $36.30
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $135.66 (-1.87%), -2.70% at $132.00
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.40 (-3.65%), -4.46% at $7.07
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $10.02 (-2.34%), -3.79% at $9.64
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.06 (-0.93%), -6.59% at $0.99
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.17
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$52 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.21 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$42 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.76 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.69 million
Source: Farside Investors
