A leading trader on decentral betting platform polymarket, which goes by the name of Justwakingup, is aiming for Federal Reserve (Fat) will reduce interest rates by 50 basic points (BPS) Next week.
According to X, the polymarket Whalees is the Justwakingup platform’s most productive traders who boast nearly $ 400 million in the total trading volume to date and profit of over $ 2 million.
The trader has placed a $ 15,000 bet on the fact that Fed will reduce the rates by 50 bps to 3.75% next week and already show a win of 3% on the position from writing. The trader stands to earn approx. $ 226,000 if Fed reduces the rates by 5 BPS.
However, the market largely expects Fed to deliver a 25 basic point cut next week, with CME’s FedWatch tool assigning a 91% probability to such a result.
That said, the odds of a JUMBO 50 BPS cutting have risen to almost 10% after Friday’s disappointing August Jobs report, reflecting growing expectations of more aggressive easing. Blackrock and Stanchart have called for a clip of 50 bps.
Adding to the market’s expectations reported the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday that the economy added 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months ending March 2025 than previously estimated, marking the largest annual downward revision on the record.
Dealers are now watching Wednesday’s US Producer Price Index and Thursday’s Consumer Price Index Data Release. Striking than expected readings could add expectations to a 50 BPS cutting cut that potentially sends Bitcoin and stores higher.
