Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, a daily overview of top stories in US hours and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
QCP Capital says the market has moved beyond simple interest rate monitoring and into a full liquidity regime, where central bank balance sheets and cross-border capital flows drive risk more than the Fed’s next 25 basis points.
“Central bank purchases, de-dollarization flows and institutional portfolio hedging have become the dominant forces driving gold higher, expanding its relevance well beyond the traditional inflation-hedging framework,” QCP Capital wrote, noting that during last weekend’s volatility, the Bitcoin-gold correlation has risen above 0.85, highlighting the two in sync asset classes.
Prediction markets are rallying around a steady but shallow Fed easing cycle that favors gold and digital assets over high-beta risk.
At Kalshi, traders now assign a 76% chance of exactly three rate cuts in 2025, with a total easing of 75 bps, matching JP Morgan’s baseline for a “mid-cycle, non-recessionary” path. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s remarks this week calling for two more rate cuts by the end of the year reinforced that trajectory.
Bitcoin trades within the same liquidity framework.
Kalshi traders see a 51% probability of it breaking $130,000 this year, which would mark a new record high, 33% for $140,000 and just 21% for $150,000, with even odds of touching $150,000 in mid-2026.
The market is positioning itself for a slow-burn rally, not a speculative rally, as easing expectations gradually filter into real interest rates and dollar liquidity. Glassnode data shows a tight cluster of call positions at the $130,000 strike, indicating that option flows can amplify short-term moves but also anchor resistance near that level.
The macro and on-chain signals point in the same direction: This is no adrenaline-fueled bull market, but a slow, liquidity-driven advance that could continue to push assets higher even without an aggressive Fed pivot.
That is, if the market can survive another Truth Social post.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin trades above $110,500, down 2%, pressured by renewed US-China trade tensions and concerns about global risk, while analysts warn that breaking the $110,000 support could open the door to a drop towards $96,500-$100,000
ETH: Ethereum is changing hands around $3,900, down about 4%, as investors scale back exposure due to macro uncertainty and concerns about crypto routines, while some remain optimistic that ETH can “catch up” to gold over time
Gold: Gold is trading near $4,141.81/oz as safe-haven demand rises amid the US-China flare-up and rising expectations of US interest rate cuts.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose on Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.95%, following Wall Street gains driven by strong bank earnings.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- Eric Trump Confirms Plans To Tokenize Real Estate With World Liberty Financial (CoinDesk)
- ‘Ship Has Sailed’: Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse Says US Won’t Return to Hostile Crypto Climate Under Gensler (The Block)
- Sony also wants its own cryptobank (decrypt)
