- The interbank rate remains range-bound throughout the week.
- IMF revision negotiations begin under EFF and RSF.
- Transfers up year-over-year, down month-over-month.
KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee is expected to remain stable and may strengthen slightly in the near term, supported by seasonal remittances during Ramadan and ahead of Eid, The news reported, citing a report published on Saturday.
The currency traded in a tight band on the interbank market this week, closing at 279.55 to the dollar on Monday and at 279.47 on Friday.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) team on Wednesday began talks with Pakistani authorities on the third review under the $7 billion Extended Financing Facility (EFF) and the second review of the $1.1 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
Upon successful implementation, by the end of April, Pakistan will be eligible for around $1 billion under the EFF and an additional $200 million under the RSF.
The geopolitical situation has worsened as the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, plunging the region into a new conflict.
The rupee has appreciated by about 60 paisa since the beginning of the year, Tresmark, a platform that provides live financial quotes, said in a client note. While this increase is modest in itself, it is more significant when considering the broader context, it said.
The rupee has strengthened despite several challenges, including rising geopolitical risks and US posture in the region, escalating tensions along the western border, isolated internal security incidents, Brent crude oil prices trading above $72 a barrel. barrel, a steady decline in exports, a growing trade deficit, tariff pressures and a persistent inflation gap with the US.
“Seasonal remittances around Ramadan and Eid are likely to keep the rupee buoyant in the near term,” Tresmark’s report said.
“That said, most economists argue that further appreciation offers limited structural benefit, making the recent firmness somewhat counterintuitive,” it added.
Pakistan’s remittances rose 15.4% year-on-year (YoY) in January to $3.5 billion. However, these flows fell 4% on a month-on-month (MoM) basis. Remittances rose 11.3% to $23.2 billion in the first seven months of fiscal 2026.
“Premiums have improved marginally. If costs are tight, exporters should opt for forwards as the rupee outlook continues to look stable to slightly stronger,” it said.
According to the report, the rupee’s stability is not isolated. Several high-carry or reform-backed EM currencies have also held firm despite geopolitical noise, including the Egyptian pound, Thai baht, South African rand, Brazilian real, Mexican peso and Indonesian rupiah.
