Bitcoins The near-term outlook may look bleak with the price hovering around $105,000, but the US fiscal picture looks considerably brighter.
According to CNBC, the US Treasury recorded a surplus of $198 billion in September 2025, the largest for that month on record. This strong finish helped reduce the fiscal deficit in 2025 to $1.78 trillion, about $41 billion (2.2%) less than in 2024.
While September typically registers a fiscal surplus due to tax payments, this time an additional factor contributed – import tariffs (tariffs) imposed by President Donald Trump in April. Fares brought in $30 billion in revenue in September, nearly half of what had been expected for the full fiscal year.
These revenues helped offset record interest payments on the $38 trillion national debt, which has reached over $1.2 trillion annually. In September, net interest payments totaled $37 billion, making it the fourth-largest federal outlay for the month. That followed Social Security ($133 billion), health care spending ($94 billion) and national defense ($76 billion).
The stronger-than-expected revenue from Trump’s tariffs suggests he is likely to remain committed to his trade war strategy despite potential market volatility. This could prompt investors to move away from risk assets and seek safety in alternatives such as bonds and gold, mirroring the market reaction seen during the April “tariff space”.
While potential worsening trade tensions could boost inflation, the Federal Reserve expects any price increases to be temporary and will likely continue to cut interest rates, currently at 4.00% to 4.25%.
According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, the market is pricing in rate cuts of 50bps for 2025, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.50 to 3.75%. It remains to be seen whether the impending easing will relieve the risk assets.
